{"id": "1205824005804457987", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-30T03:00:00Z", "msg": "616\nWTPZ41 KNHC 300257\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n800 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026\n \nThe infrared satellite presentation of Karina has continued to \nimprove tonight, with the center of circulation now located beneath \na well-defined CDO with cloud top temperatures below -80 C. A recent \nGPM GMI microwave pass revealed a compact, but somewhat asymmetric \ncenter, with a slight lack of definition extending south and \nsouthwest of the center. Moderate southerly to southeasterly wind \nshear is also evident in the microwave imagery, with the mid-level \ncenter displaced slightly to the west and northwest of the low-level \ncenter. The latest intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.0/65 kt, while \nobjective intensity estimates range from 52 to 66 kt. Based on the \ntilt in the vertical structure of the cyclone and the relatively \nwide range of intensity estimates, the initial intensity is \nmaintained at 60 kt for this advisory.\n \nKarina is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest and is \ncurrently positioned between a ridge of high pressure over the \nsouthwestern United States and another area of high pressure to the \nnorthwest. A turn toward the west is expected Sunday into Monday as \na strong upper-level low approaches the western U.S., weakening the \naforementioned ridge over the Southwest. Karina will then be steered \nprimarily by the ridge to the northwest. There is considerable \nspread in the track forecast guidance beyond 60 h, largely due to \ndifferences in the strength of the ridge that will guide the storm. \nThe latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous \nadvisory through 48 h, but has been shifted to the left for the \nremainder of the forecast period. The updated forecast remains near \nthe middle of the track guidance and close to the simple consensus. \n \nThe strong tropical storm is moving over very warm waters of around \n29 C in a relatively moist mid-level environment and favorable \nupper-level winds. Karina is forecast to steadily strengthen, \nalthough it should be noted that the ECMWF- and GFS-based SHIPS \nstatistical guidance indicates a possibility of rapid \nintensification over the next 24 to 48 h. The latest forecast calls \nfor Karina to become a hurricane later tonight and reach major \nhurricane strength early next week. This intensity forecast is near \nthe higher end of the guidance envelope, but remains slightly below \nHCCA. After 72 h, Karina is expected to encounter increasingly dry \nair and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should promote \ngradual weakening through late next week. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/0300Z 17.0N 120.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 17.3N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  31/0000Z 17.6N 123.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  31/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 18.0N 126.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  01/1200Z 18.7N 128.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  02/0000Z 19.3N 130.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  03/0000Z 20.7N 132.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  04/0000Z 22.6N 134.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}