{"msg": "684\nAXNT20 KNHC 292332\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSignificant Rainfall: Disorganized showers and thunderstorm continue \nin association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, located\nabout 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, there are \nno signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. \nRedevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward \nto west-northwestward near 25 mph. The wave could bring locally \nheavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, \nthe Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days.\nThe main hazards for Puerto Rico will be urban flooding, lightning,\nand gusty winds, especially tonight into Monday. The potential \nfor isolated flash flooding is lower but cannot be ruled out. \nRainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals remain \nuncertain. Islands local topography could enhance orographic \nlift and support additional rainfall, varying by island. Peak \nrainfall rates are expected from tonight through Sun. \nPlease, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 34W, south of 18N, moving westward at \naround 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. \nA tropical wave is along 58W, south of 21N, moving westward around\n20 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure, remnants of T.S. Dolly, is along \nthe wave axis near 17N58W. A cluster of moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is within about 90 nm NW quadrant of low \ncenter. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are \nnoted on either side of the wave axis per scatterometer and \naltimeter data, covering roughly the waters from 16N to 22N \nbetween 50W and 60W.\nA tropical wave is along 70W and extends from Dominican Republic\nto western Venezuela, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis, affecting\nDominican Republic and the southern offshore waters. \nA tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 83W, south \nof 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to\nenhance convection over parts of Central America.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 18N16W, and extends SW to near 10N24W, and\nwestward to near 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N40W to \n11N53W. In addition to the convection associated with the\ntropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present near \nthe ITCZ.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed over the NE Gulf near \n29N87W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over\nFlorida and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers, with \nembedded thunderstorms, are noted elsewehre over the Gulf \nwaters. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective \nactivity. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the basin. \nUnder this pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight \nto moderate seas prevail. Winds and seas could be higher near \nthunderstorms.\nFor the forecast, cloudiness and showers associated with a weak \nlow pressure area centered about 125 miles south of Pensacola, \nFlorida, have become a little better organized since yesterday. \nSome additional slow development of this system is possible \nduring the next few days as it drifts westward. Currently, this \nsystem has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 \ndays. Regardless of development, mariners over the northeast and\nnorth-central Gulf can expect thunderstorms with gusty winds and\nlocally higher seas into early next week. Elsewhere, a weak \npressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds and \nslight seas into into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh \nwith moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to\na diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each \nnight. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall\ninformation associated to a strong tropical wave that will cross \nthe northern Leeward Islands tonight. \nHigh pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low\nsupports fresh to strong trades offshore Colombia where seas are\n7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas \nare found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, and also \nin the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nslight to moderate seas prevail. Convection has fakred-up over\nmost of Cuba and Jamaica while a tropical wave is enhancing\nconvection over Dominican Republic. Showers and thunderstorms\nahead of the remnant of Dolly are reaching the northern Leeward\nIslands.\nFor the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern\nLeeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun \nand Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong \nto near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with \nlocally heavy rainfall to nearby waters. Otherwise, the pressure \ngradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower \npressure over South America will support strong trades and rough \nseas over the south-central Caribbean this weekend. These winds \nwill diminish slightly early next week as the aforementioned \ntropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\nabout a strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, that is approaching\nthe Lesser Antilles. \nNumerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring between Bermuda\nand the Bahamas, particularly N of 24N and W of 68W. A diffluent\npattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. A \nridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, \nanchored on a 1026 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near\n35N33W. Another high pressure center of 1026 mb is noted NE of \nBermuda near 35N54W. Aside from the winds and seas associated \nwith the remnants of Dolly, fresh to locally strong northerly \nwinds and moderate to rough seas are evident N of 20N and E of \n20N to the coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands. \nElsewhere, the ridge generally supports moderate to locally fresh\nwinds easterly winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross \nthe northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and \nPuerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave \nwill bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and \nthunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters S of \n23N. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer \ntrough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early \nnext week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, \nsupporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. \nWinds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola \nthrough Sun night.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205783631377825795", "issued": "2026-08-29T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205783631377825795"}