{"msg": "885\nAXPZ20 KNHC 292154\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Karina is centered near 16.4N 118.8W at 29/2100\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N \nbetween 118W and 122W. Similar convective activity is seen in a \nband to the E of center from 11N to 16N between 114W and 117W. \nKarina is moving toward the west-northwest, followed by a more \nwesterly motion over the next day or two. Karina is just below \nhurricane intensity. Strengthening is forecast during the next \nseveral days. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane within the\nnext day and could become a major hurricane early next week. \nSwells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the \ncoast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this \nweekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf \nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 13.2N 137.1W at 29/2100\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). \nNumerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm\nW semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest. A \nwestward motion should resume during the next few hours and \ncontinue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is \nexpected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane\nby Monday or Monday night.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:\nAn area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is\nlocated well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is\nexpected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15\nmph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual\ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely\nto form in the next several of days. This system has a medium\nchance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high\nchance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather\nOutlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 101.5W from 04N to 15N, \nmoving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 95W AND \n107W. Recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong E to SE\non the E side of the wave axis from 11N to 14N between 99W and\n101.5W. Seas are moderate with these winds.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 18N104W, and\nW of 11N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell \nand the tropical wave, scattered moderate to strong convection is\nobserved from 04N to 09N between 80W and 84W. This convective\nactivity is affecting parts of western Panama and southern Costa\nRica.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nTropical Storm Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the\npotential of tropical cyclone formation.\nWhile the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican \noffshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to \nvery rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are \nreaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated\nwith the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the \nislands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across \nTehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally \nmoderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of \nCalifornia. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 16.9N 120.4W Sun morning, move to 17.4N 122.0W \nSun afternoon, 17.7N 123.7W Mon morning, 17.9N 125.3W Mon \nafternoon, 18.3N 126.8W Tue morning, and 19.0N 128.8W Tue \nafternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to \nnear 20.4N 131.5W Wed afternoon. The strong to near-gale force \nSE winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast \nperiphery of Karina will continue to impact the waters around \nClarion Island into Sun, then diminish through Mon as Karina \ncontinues to move away from the area. Fresh to strong northerly \ngap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the\nGulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly\nwinds are expected across the northern and central Gulf of \nCalifornia through Sun night into Mon. Locally stronger winds may\noccur. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate\nwinds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into \nearly next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated \nmoderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer \noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may\nfreshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next\nweek. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly \nmoderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon \ntrough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Tropical Storm Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area \nof disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone \nformation.\nA trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone\nIselle, extends from 27N133W to 21N134W. Fresh to strong NE winds\nand seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the\ntrough axis and mainly N of 25N W of 129W. Elsewhere, mainly \nmoderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open \nwaters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the \ntwo tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas \ngenerated by Karina cover the waters from 09N to 20N between 111W\nand 122W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the \nopen waters.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 16.9N 120.4W Sun morning, move to 17.4N 122.0W \nSun afternoon, 17.7N 123.7W Mon morning, 17.9N 125.3W Mon \nafternoon, 18.3N 126.8W Tue morning, and 19.0N 128.8W Tue \nafternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to \nnear 20.4N 131.5W Wed afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move \nto 13.2N 138.6W Sun morning, 13.1N 140.9W Sun afternoon, 13.1N \n142.8W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.2N 144.5W \nMon afternoon, 13.3N 146.2W Tue morning, and 13.4N 147.6W Tue \nafternoon. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to \nnear 13.8N 150.0W Wed afternoon. Seas 8 ft or greater generated\nby Karina will cover a large area by Sun afternoon, particularly\nfrom 08N to 28N between 110W and 130W. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205764381538680835", "issued": "2026-08-29T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205764381538680835"}