{"id": "1205748329352003587", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-29T21:00:00Z", "msg": "736\nWTPZ42 KNHC 292033\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026\n1100 AM HST Sat Aug 29 2026\n\nLowell remains a sheared cyclone at this time, with the low-level \ncenter near the eastern edge of the main convective mass.  Since the \norganization and the various satellite intensity estimates have \nchanged little from the previous advisory, the initial intensity \nremains 40 kt.\n\nFor the past 12 h or so Lowell has been moving west-northwestward \nor 285/11 kt. A westward motion should resume soon and continue for \nthe next 2-3 days as a low- to mid-level ridge to the north is the \nmain steering influence. After that time, the track guidance splits \ninto three camps, likely due to the potential effects of Tropical \nStorm Karina on Lowell's steering flow.  One camp, which includes \nthe Google Deepmind Ensemble Mean, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, \nthe UKMET, and the ECMWF - which has flip-flopped into this camp - \ncalls for Lowell to continue generally westward. A second camp, \nwhich includes the GFS and the various regional hurricane models, \nforecast a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest. The third \ncamp, which includes the Canadian, Canadian Ensemble Mean, the GFS \nEnsemble mean, and the NAVGEM, have Lowell slowing its westward \nmotion, with the NAVGEM turning it back to the east.  Needless to \nsay that with this kind of spread the forecast is low confidence.  \nOverall, the guidance envelope has trended a little more to the west \nand a little faster. That being said, the new forecast track is a \nlittle north of the previous track due to the current \nwest-northwestward jog.\n\nThe ongoing shear has been slower to diminish than forecast \nyesterday. However, the dynamical models are in good agreement  \nthat it should diminish during the next 12-24 h, with Lowell \nstrengthening as it becomes vertically aligned. After 24 h, the \nintensity forecast shows a faster rate of development as conditions \nbecome more favorable. By the end of the forecast period, the\nintensity forecast becomes more uncertain due to Lowell's potential\ninteraction with Karina. The forecast intensity, which has minor \ntweaks from the previous forecast, calls for Lowell and Karina to \nstay far enough apart for Lowell to maintain its strength or keep \nstrengthening. However, a slower forward motion could expose Lowell \nto stronger shear associated with outflow from Karina and cause a \nweaker storm. The new intensity forecast again lies in the middle \nof a guidance envelope with significant spread.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/2100Z 13.2N 137.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 13.2N 138.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 13.1N 140.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  31/0600Z 13.1N 142.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  31/1800Z 13.2N 144.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 60H  01/0600Z 13.3N 146.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 13.4N 147.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  02/1800Z 13.8N 150.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  03/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}