{"msg": "359\nAXPZ20 KNHC 291554\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Karina is centered near 15.6N 117.6W at 29/1500\nUTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 32 ft (9.5 m). Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 16.5N between\n117W and 121W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis observed elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 113W and 120W. \nKarina is moving toward the northwest, followed by a more \nwesterly motion over the next day or two. Strengthening is \nforecast during the next several days. Karina is forecast to \nbecome a hurricane over the weekend and could become a major \nhurricane early next week. Swells generated by Karina will begin \nto affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.8N 135.7W at 29/1500 UTC,\nmoving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. \nPeak seas are currently around 12 ft (4 m). Numerous moderate to \nscattered strong convection is seen 11N to 14N W of 135W. Lowell \nis moving toward the west. This general motion, along with a \ngradual increase in forward speed, is expected during the next \nseveral days. Gradual strengthening is expected during the weekend, \nand Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:\nAn area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is\nlocated well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental\nconditions appear favorable for gradual development of this\nsystem, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next\nseveral of days while it moves west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a medium chance of\ntropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance \nthrough 7 days.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 101W from 05N to 15N, \nmoving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is from 10N to 14N between 98W AND \n104W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N95W to 12N109W, and\nW of 11N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell \nand the tropical wave, a cluster of moderate to strong convection\nis noted from 04.5N to 08N E of 81W to the coast of Colombia.\nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from \n03N to 06N W of 123W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nTropical Storm Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the\npotential of tropical cyclone formation.\nWhile the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican\noffshore waters, strong to near-gale force winds and rough to \nvery rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are \nreaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds \nare active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as noted in the latest \nscatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate winds and slight\nseas dominate the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds \nand moderate seas are noted elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 16.5N 119.0W this evening, move to 17.2N 120.8W \nSun morning, 17.5N 122.6W Sun evening, 17.8N 124.4W Mon morning, \n18.1N 125.9W Mon evening, and 18.7N 127.8W Tue morning. Karina \nwill change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.1N 130.4W\nearly Wed. The strong to near-gale force SE winds and rough to \nvery rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina will \nimpact the waters around Clarion Island into Sun, then diminish \nthrough Mon as Karina continues to move W-NW and away from the \narea. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional rough \nseas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through \nearly Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist across \nthe northern Gulf of California through Sun night. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate\nwinds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into \nearly next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated \nmoderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer \noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may\nfreshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next\nweek. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly \nmoderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon \ntrough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Tropical Storm Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area \nof disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone \nformation.\nThe remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle has dissipated,\nleaving a trough over the NW corner of the forecast area that\nextends from 29N133W to 23N134W. Fresh to strong NE winds and\nseas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring W of the trough axis. Elsewhere,\nmainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the \nopen waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from \nthe two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough \nseas generated by Karina cover the waters from 06N to 23N \nbetween 108W and 124W. Seas are mainly moderate across the \nremainder of the open waters.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 16.5N 119.0W this evening, move to 17.2N 120.8W \nSun morning, 17.5N 122.6W Sun evening, 17.8N 124.4W Mon morning, \n18.1N 125.9W Mon evening, and 18.7N 127.8W Tue morning. Karina \nwill change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.1N 130.4W\nearly Wed. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 12.8N 137.3W this \nevening, 12.8N 139.7W Sun morning, 12.8N 141.8W Sun evening, \n12.9N 143.6W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.0N \n145.2W Mon evening, and 13.1N 146.9W Tue morning. Lowell will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to near 13.4N 149.4W\nearly Wed. Seas 8 ft or greater generated by Karina will cover a\nlarge area by Sun morning, particularly from 08N to 27N between \n110W and 129W.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205693649629052931", "issued": "2026-08-29T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205693649629052931"}