{"id": "1205678575031484419", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-29T15:00:00Z", "msg": "655\nWTPZ42 KNHC 291438\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026\n500 AM HST Sat Aug 29 2026\n\nLowell is slightly better organized than it was at this time \nyesterday, as the low-level center is now beneath the convective \novercast. However, satellite imagery suggests that the mid-level \ncenter is still displaced west of the low-level center due to \nongoing easterly shear. Overnight scatterometer data suggest that \nthe maximum winds were 35-40 kt, so the initial intensity remains \n40 kt.\n\nLowell continues moving westward or 280/7 kt. A low- to mid-level \nridge is forecast to strengthen north of the cyclone during the \nnext couple of days, which should cause Lowell to continue westward \nwith some a gradual increase in forward speed. This general \nwestward motion is expected to continue through the weekend and \ninto early next week. After that, the guidance becomes quite \ndivergent in both direction and speed due to the potential effects \nof Tropical Storm Karina on Lowell's steering flow. By 120 h, the \nGoogle Deepmind Ensemble mean shows a continued westward motion, \nthe GFS, UKMET, and the regional hurricane models show a slower \nmotion toward the northwest, the ECMWF shows a slow motion toward \nthe west, and the Canadian model turns the cyclone northeastward. \nThe new track forecast lies between the Google Deepmind and the GFS \ncluster of models, and it is similar to the previous forecast.\n\nThe current easterly shear should continue for another 18-24 h \nbefore diminishing. The shear, along with mid- to upper-level dry \nair seen in water vapor imagery just north of the cyclone, should \nresult in slow strengthening through 24 h.  After that conditions \nbecome more favorable, and the intensity forecast shows a faster \nrate of development. By the end of the forecast period, the \nintensity forecast becomes more uncertain due to Lowell's potential \ninteraction with Karina. As noted before, a faster westward track\nwould likely keep the cyclones sufficiently separated and allow\nLowell to continue strengthening, while a slower solution could\nexpose Lowell to stronger shear associated with outflow from Karina.\nThe latest NHC intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the \nprevious forecast, and it lies near the middle of a guidance \nenvelope that has a significant spread.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/1500Z 12.8N 135.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 12.8N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 12.8N 139.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  31/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  31/1200Z 12.9N 143.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 60H  01/0000Z 13.0N 145.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 13.1N 146.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  02/1200Z 13.4N 149.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  03/1200Z 13.8N 151.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}