{"msg": "421\nAXPZ20 KNHC 290905\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0900 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Karina is centered near 14.7N 117.0W at 29/0900\nUTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 32 ft (9.5 m). Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE and 90 nm\nNW semicircles of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest,\nand this general motion is expected to continue over the next \nday or so, followed by a more westward turn. Karina is forecast \nto become a hurricane later today and could become a major \nhurricane on Sunday. Swells generated by Karina will begin to \naffect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.6N 134.8W at 29/0900\nUTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50\nkt. Peak seas are currently around 12 ft (4 m). Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is observed within 180 nm SW \nsemicircle. Lowell is expected to continue to move westward and\nincrease its forward speed through today. Lowell may gradually\nstrengthen through Sun and could become a hurricane west of 140W by\nMonday.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 100W from 05N to 15N, \nmoving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to\nisolated strong convection is from 14N to 17N between 100W and \n102W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N80W to 10N85W to\n07N100W to 09N105W, and from 111N115W to 15N125W. In addition to\nthe convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical wave, \nnumerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active from \n06N to 12N between 85W and 105W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nTropical Storm Karina.\nWhile the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican\noffshore waters, strong to near- gale force winds and rough to \nvery rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are \nreaching across the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong N gap \nwinds are active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as noted in a \nrecent scatterometer satellite pass. The same pass also confirmed\nmoderate to fresh SE winds across the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, the strong to near-gale force SE winds and \nrough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina\nwill impact the waters around Clarion Island into Sun, then \ndiminish through Mon as Karina continues to move W-NW and away \nfrom the area. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional\nrough seas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nthrough early Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will persist\nacross the northern Gulf of California through late Sun. Looking\nahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form during \nthe next day or two well to the south of southwestern Mexico. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development\nof this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nearly next week while it moves west- northwestward to \nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 kt. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to \nmoderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend\ninto early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated\nmoderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer \noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may\nfreshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next\nweek. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate\nseas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.\nThe remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle has dissipated,\nleaving a trough along 132W from 22N to 27N. Fresh winds and \nmoderate to rough seas are occurring within 120 nm west of the\ntrough. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the \nremainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon \ntrough away from the two tropical storms. Rough seas generated by\nKarina cover the waters from 05N to 20N between 105W and 125W. \nSeas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters.\nFor the forecast, Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 118.4W this\nafternoon, move to 16.5N 120.3W Sun morning, 16.9N 122.0W Sun\nafternoon, 17.3N 123.8W Mon morning, 17.6N 125.4W Mon afternoon,\nand 18.1N 127.0W Tue morning. Karina will change little in\nintensity as it moves to 19.3N 129.9W early Wed. Tropical Storm \nLowell will move to 12.8N 136.3W this afternoon, 12.9N 139.0W \nSun morning, then move west of 140W Sun afternoon. Lowell will\ncontinue to move west and strengthen to a hurricane near 13.1N \n145.0W by Mon afternoon. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205613231537422339", "issued": "2026-08-29T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205613231537422339"}