{"msg": "621\nAXNT20 KNHC 290421\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly have\nopened up into a trough at the surface, and is now a tropical wave \nalong about 51W. This system is passing directly south of the \nAtlantic subtropical ridge, and producing gale-force winds to 35 \nkt, from 16.5N to 17.5N between 49W and 51W. Peaks seas there are\nestimated at 14 ft. This tropical wave will approach the waters \neast of the Leeward Islands late Sat as a strong tropical wave, \nwith winds expected to diminish to 25-30 kt by then, and below \ngale conditions. Strong winds with gusts to gale- force, rough \nseas, accompanied by squalls and thunderstorms will spread into \nthe far NE Caribbean, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico and the \nadjacent waters Sat evening into early next week in association \nwith this tropical wave.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website\n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 30W, south of 16N, moving westward at\naround 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is around the periphery\nof this wave, as Saharan Air dominates the area N of 11N. \nA tropical wave, the remnants of Dolly, is along 50W, south of \n21N, moving westward around 20 kt. A few clusters of moderate to \nstrong convection are noted from 15N to 19N between 49.5W and\n53.5W. Gale-force winds accompany this wave. See description above\nin the Special Features section for more details.\nA tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean, along 64W and \nsouth of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 13.5N to 17N between 63W and 65W.\nA tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 79W,\nmoving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to be enhancing\nconvection over parts of central and eastern Cuba and Jamaica.\nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the south\nportion of this wave from 09N to 11.5N between 78W and 83W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nMauritania near 19.5N16.5W to 10N20W to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends \nfrom 06N34W to 15N50W, then resumes from 11N54W to 09.5N61W. \nAssociated convection is described above with the tropical waves.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nShowers and thunderstorms affecting the norther Gulf waters N of \n26N have diminished significantly in recent hours, with only \nwidely scattered moderate convection now occurring mainly N of 26N\nand E of 91W. This activity is occurring south of a stalled \nfrontal boundary across the Gulf coast states along 32N. Also, \nover the Gulf waters, a 1014 mb low is located near 29.5N87W with \na surface trough extending W-SW to near 28N91W. A weak ridge \ndominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentle \nto locally moderate winds and slight seas 3 ft or less prevail.\nFor the forecast, weak will persist across the Gulf waters \nthrough early next week, supporting moderate or lighter winds and \nslight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off \nwestern Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface \ntrough moving west off the peninsula each night. A nearly-\nstationary front will meander near the northern Gulf waters during\nthe next few days producing thunderstorms along and to the south\nof the front. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas \nassociated with the stronger thunderstorms. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe Atlantic subtropical ridge extends across the central Atlantic\nalong about 36N then SW to coastal Georgia along 31N. The pressure\ngradient south of this ridge supports fresh to strong easterly \ntrade winds and rough seas to 9 ft in the south- central \nCaribbean, to around 30 kt across the Gulf of Venezuela and NE \nColombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are \nfound in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and Windward \nPassage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to \nmoderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are \noccurring in the SW Caribbean ahead of a tropical wave.\nFor the forecast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are now a\nstrong tropical wave moving quickly westward, and will cross 55W \nSat morning. This tropical wave will then approach the waters \neast of the Leeward Islands late Sat, bringing strong winds with\ngale-force wind gusts, rough seas, and accompanied by squalls and \nthunderstorms that will spread across the far NE Caribbean, the\nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters Sat evening into\nearly next week. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high \npressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America \nwill support strong trades and rough seas over the south- central \nCaribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish some early next \nweek as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure \ngradient, but will increase again by the middle of next week. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA Gale Warning is in affect in association the remnants of Dolly,\nnow a tropical wave along 51W. Please, refer to the Special \nFeatures section for more details. \nScattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, dot the waters \nbetween Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly N of 23N and W of \n67W. Converging middle level winds and a diffluent pattern aloft \nare helping to induce this convective activity. A ridge dominates\nthe remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a pair\nof surface highs, one 1030 mb high pressure located SW of the \nAzores near 37N32W, and a second 1027 mb high near 36N52W. The \nridge supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and \nmoderate seas across much of the SW North Atlantic S of 26N and W\nof 35W. Farther E, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough\nseas prevail N of 18N and E of 24N to the coast of W Africa, \nincluding the Canary Islands. Moderate to locally fresh winds and \nmoderate seas prevail elsewhere to 35W, under the influence of \nthe ridge. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the strong tropical wave associated \nwith the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will bring strong \nwinds, rough seas, squalls and thunderstorms waters S of 23N as \nit moves across the southeastern zones E through NE of the Leeward\nIslands late Sat through Sun, and then reaches the Atlantic waters\nnear the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico early Sun through Sun\nnight, and spreads toward Hispaniola Sun night through Mon. \nElsewhere, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic \nwaters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong\noff northern Hispaniola each night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205557300472741891", "issued": "2026-08-29T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205557300472741891"}