{"msg": "481\nAXPZ20 KNHC 290329\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Karina is centered near 14.2N 116.3W at 29/0300\nUTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 31 ft (9.5 m). Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE and 90 nm\nNW semicircles of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest,\nand this general motion is expected to continue over the next \nday or so, followed by a more westward turn. Karina is forecast \nto become a hurricane by early Saturday and could become a major \nhurricane on Sunday. Swells generated by Karina will begin to \naffect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.5N 134.2W at 29/0300\nUTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50\nkt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is observed within 180 nm SW \nsemicircle. Lowell is moving toward the northwest. A turn toward \nthe west is expected overnight, and a westward motion at a \nfaster forward speed is expected over the weekend. Little change \nin strength is expected through tonight. However, strengthening \nis expected to begin on Saturday, and Lowell could become a \nhurricane by Sunday night or Monday.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 98W from 05N to 15N, moving\nquickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection\nis from 12N to 14N between 98W and 104W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 09N105W. In \naddition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical \nwave, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active \nfrom 04N to 10N between 80W and 90W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nTropical Storm Karina.\nFresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with the\nouter periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands.\nMarine conditions will continue to deteriorate in this area, and\nTropical Storm conditions are possible tonight and Sat. Fresh to\nstrong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec\nand downwind to about 14N. In the Gulf of California, moderate to\nlocally fresh southerly winds are observed N of 29N per earlier\nscatterometer data. Gentle winds and slight seas are occurring \nacross the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican \noffshore waters, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen\nto a hurricane southwest of Clarion Island near 15.1N 117.5W Sat\nmorning, and will bring strong winds and rough seas to the \nwaters around the Revillagigedo Islands and southwest of Baja \nCalifornia Sur beyond 180 nm through late Sat. Karina will \ncontinue to move to the northwest and away from Mexican offshore \nwaters through early next week. Fresh to strong northerly gap \nwinds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through \nearly Sun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to\nmoderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong\nsoutheasterly winds will persist in the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia through Sun night. Looking ahead, another area of low\npressure is forecast to form during the next day or two well to \nthe south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear\nfavorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical\ndepression is likely to form early next week while it moves \nwest- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to \nmoderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend\ninto early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated\nmoderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer \noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may\nfreshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next\nweek. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate\nseas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.\nThe remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle is near 25N132W \nwith a central pressure of 1009 mb. Fresh to strong winds and \nmoderate seas are occurring from 25N to 29N between 130W and \n135W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the \nremainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon \ntrough away from the two tropical storms and Post-Tropical \ncyclone Iselle. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters \nfrom 05N to 20N between 105W and 125W. Seas are mainly moderate \nacross the remainder of the open waters.\nFor the forecast, Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 117.5W Sat\nmorning, move to 16.2N 119.4W Sat evening, 17.0N 121.1W Sun\nmorning, 17.3N 122.8W Sun evening, 17.5N 124.6W Mon morning, and\n18.0N 126.0W Mon evening. Karina will change little in intensity\nas it moves to 19.1N 129.2W late Tue. Tropical Storm Lowell will\nmove to 12.6N 135.3W Sat morning, 12.7N 136.8W Sat evening, \n12.8N 138.6W Sun morning, and 13.0N 140.5W Sun evening. Lowell\nwill strengthen to a hurricane west of 140W Mon and continue to\nmove westward. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205547016411643907", "issued": "2026-08-29T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205547016411643907"}