{"id": "1205539754507010051", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-29T03:00:00Z", "msg": "582\nWTPZ41 KNHC 290252\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n800 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026\n\nVisible satellite imagery continues to show Karina with \ndistinct, well-organized spiral banding around a central dense \ncloudy inner core. The latest subjective intensity estimate of \nT3.5/55 kt from TAFB, is lining up well with the objective \nintensity estimates of 50 to 60 kt from UW-CIMSS. Because of this, \nthe initial intensity was maintained at 55 kt.\n\nKarina is on a northwestward heading of 310/10 kt. This should \ncontinue through the next 24 h or so as ridging will build over the \nSouthwestern United States. Karina is then forecast to slow slightly \nand be steered in a more westerly direction this weekend as a \nmid-level trough first erodes the aforementioned ridge, and another \nridge over the central North Pacific quickly builds southeastward in \nits place. The overall track of Karina was shifted a bit farther \nsouth from the previous advisory, following the HCCA guidance, but \nthe reliable guidance remains in good agreement through the early \nportion of the forecast. Model spread increases significantly \nthereafter reducing confidence of Karina's exact track toward the \nlatter end of the forecast period.\n\nThe SHIPS guidance remains largely unchanged, still showcasing a \nfavorable environment for intensification over the next 60 h or so. \nGiven the light shear, warm SSTs, and moisture-laden atmosphere, \nKarina has all the necessary ingredients conducive to significantly \nstrengthen to major hurricane status. The latest guidance from \nGoogle DeepMind now features over 80 percent of the ensemble members \nshowing Karina becoming a major hurricane. The SHIPS diagnostics \nshow environmental conditions becoming less conducive for \nstrengthening after the weekend and weakening becoming becoming \nincreasingly likely early next week. Slight adjustments to the \nintensity forecast have been made to reflect the guidance.\n \n\n FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0300Z 14.2N 116.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 15.1N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 16.2N 119.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  31/0000Z 17.3N 122.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  31/1200Z 17.5N 124.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 18.0N 126.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  02/0000Z 19.1N 129.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  03/0000Z 20.6N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}