{"id": "1205537605131304963", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-29T03:00:00Z", "msg": "293\nWTPZ42 KNHC 290241\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026\n500 PM HST Fri Aug 28 2026\n\nLowell remains a sheared tropical cyclone this afternoon. Moderate \neasterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the bulk of the \nconvection over and west of the low-level circulation center. There \nhas been little evidence of strengthening during the past several \nhours, and a blend of the latest objective intensity estimates and \nsubjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB support holding the \ninitial intensity at 40 kt for this advisory. \n\nThe cyclone continues to move slowly westward, with an initial \nmotion of about 275/5 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to \nstrengthen north of the cyclone during the next couple of days, \nwhich should cause the cyclone to continue westward with a gradual \nincrease in forward speed. This general westward motion is expected \nto continue through the weekend and into early next week. Track \nforecast uncertainty increases considerably thereafter due in part \nto the potential influence on the steering flow from TS Karina to \nits northeast. There remains considerable spread in the guidance, \nparticularly in forward speed, with the multi-model consensus (HCCA) \nand Google DeepMind ensemble mean generally faster than the GFS and \nECMWF solutions. In addition to the along-track spread, the \ncross-track spread also increases considerably by day 5. Given these \ndifferences, the latest NHC track forecast reflects a blend of the \nprevious forecast, Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and HCCA.  \n\nThe easterly vertical wind shear currently affecting Lowell is \nforecast to hold into the weekend, then steadily decrease by the \nlatter half of the weekend, which should allow the cyclone to become \nbetter organized and gradually strengthen. However, the current \nsheared structure and nearby mid- to upper-level dry air should \ntemper the rate of intensification in the short term. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to become more favorable thereafter, and a \nfaster rate of strengthening is possible beginning by early next \nweek. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain later in the \nperiod due to Lowell's potential interaction with Karina. A faster \nwestward track would likely keep the cyclones sufficiently separated \nand allow Lowell to continue strengthening, while a slower solution \ncould expose Lowell to stronger shear associated with outflow from \nKarina. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous \nadvisory and continues to show Lowell becoming a hurricane in about \n60 h.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0300Z 12.5N 134.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 12.6N 135.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 12.7N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  31/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  31/1200Z 13.2N 142.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 13.4N 144.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  02/0000Z 13.7N 146.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  03/0000Z 14.2N 150.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}