{"msg": "325\nAXPZ20 KNHC 282158\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Karina is centered near 13.7N 115.5W at 28/2100\nUTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 24 ft (8.0 m). Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE and 90 nm\nNW semicircles of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest, \nand this general motion is expected to continue over the next \nday or so, followed by a more westward turn. Karina is forecast \nto become a hurricane by early Saturday and could become a major \nhurricane on Sunday. Swells generated by Karina will begin to \naffect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Lowell Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near \n12.5N 133.4W at 28/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind \nspeed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently \naround 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is \nobserved within 180 nm SW semicircle. Lowell is moving toward \nthe northwest. A turn toward the west is expected by tonight, \nand a westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over \nthe weekend. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. \nHowever, strengthening is expected to begin on Saturday, and \nLowell could become a hurricane by Sunday night or Monday.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 96W from 05N to 15N, moving\nquickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is noted from 07N to 12N between 89W and 98W, and \nfrom 10N to 14N between 96W and 101W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N95W to 11N110W. In \naddition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical \nwave, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active\nfrom 03N to 07N between 80W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 04N to 11N W of 115W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nTropical Storm Karina.\nFresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with the\nouter periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands.\nMarine conditions will continue to deteriorate in this area, and\nTropical Storm conditions are possible tonight and Sat. Fresh to\nstrong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec\nand downwind to about 14N. In the Gulf of California, moderate to\nlocally fresh southerly winds are observed N of 29N per recent\nscatterometer data. Gentle winds and slight seas are occurring\nacross the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican \noffshore waters, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas \nprevail. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 14.6N 116.6W Sat morning, move to 15.9N 118.4W Sat\nafternoon, 16.9N 120.1W Sun morning, 17.5N 121.9W Sun afternoon,\n17.9N 123.4W Mon morning, and 18.2N 125.1W Mon afternoon. Karina\nwill change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 128.1W\nTue afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with \nlocally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to \nfresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly\nwinds will persist in the northern Gulf of California tonight \nthrough Sun night. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is\nforecast to form during the next day or two well to the south of\nsouthwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable \nfor gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression\nis likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward\nto northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas there. Gentle \nto moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough,\nmainly from from 03N to 07N between 80W and 87W. Strong gusty winds\nare near thunderstorms.\nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend\ninto early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated\nmoderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer \noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may\nfreshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next\nweek. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate\nseas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.\nThe remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle is near 25N131W \nwith a central pressure of 1010 mb. Fresh to strong winds and \nmoderate seas are occurring from 27N to 30N between 127W and \n134W. An area of fresh to strong SW to W winds is south of \nKarina affecting the waters from 05N to 10N between 115W and 122W\nbased of recent satellite derived wind data. Elsewhere, mainly \nmoderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open \nwaters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the \ntwo tropical storms and Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle. Rough seas \ngenerated by Karina cover the waters from 04N to 19N between \n105W and 119W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of\nthe open waters.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a \nhurricane near 14.6N 116.6W Sat morning, move to 15.9N 118.4W Sat\nafternoon, 16.9N 120.1W Sun morning, 17.5N 121.9W Sun afternoon,\n17.9N 123.4W Mon morning, and 18.2N 125.1W Mon afternoon. Karina\nwill change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 128.1W\nTue afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 12.6N 134.0W Sat \nmorning, 12.8N 135.4W Sat afternoon, 13.0N 136.9W Sun morning, \n13.1N 138.6W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.4N \n140.5W Mon morning, and 13.6N 142.4W Mon afternoon. Lowell will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to near 14.1N 145.6W Tue\nafternoon.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205482093133660163", "issued": "2026-08-28T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205482093133660163"}