{"id": "1205465628367093763", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-28T21:00:00Z", "msg": "865\nWTPZ42 KNHC 282035\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026\n1100 AM HST Fri Aug 28 2026\n\nLowell continues to be affected by easterly vertical shear. The \nlow-level center is currently exposed to the east of the main \nconvective mass, and satellite imagery is hinting that the \nmid-level center is west or southwest of the low-level center. A \nrecent ASCAT overpass showed no tropical-storm force winds in the \neastern semicircle, but it did not sample the winds under the \ndeep convection.  Satellite intensity estimates range from 30-45 \nkt, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. \n\nLowell is starting its forecast westward turn. The initial motion \nis 305/4 kt, and the cyclone should start a westward motion within \nthe next 12 h. A general westward motion should continue for the \nnext 2-3 days as a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Lowell \nbecomes the primary steering influence.  The forecast uncertainty \nbecomes quite large by 120 h due to the possible effect of the \nlarger Tropical Storm Storm Karina on Lowell's steering currents. \nThe track guidance has a significant spread in Lowell's forward \nspeed between the faster HCCA/UKMET/Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean \nand the slower ECMWF/Canadian/GFS.  The new track forecast leans \ntowards the faster models, and it is a little south of the previous \nforecast.\n\nThe current shear is expected to decrease in 18-24 hours. After \nthat time, conditions appear generally favorable for strengthening, \nwith the caveat that water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level \ndry air not far north of the cyclone's forecast track. The \nintensity forecast shows only modest strengthening during the next \n24 h due to the shear and Lowell's current poor level of \norganization. After that, a faster rate of development is likely, \nparticularly after 60 h. The intensity near the end of the forecast \nperiod is dependent on how close Lowell is to Karina. The current \nfaster track forecast keeps the cyclones farther apart and thus \nLowell is forecast to continue strengthening. However, if the \nslower track guidance is correct, Lowell could wind up in stronger \nshear and with a lower intensity due to proximity to Karina.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/2100Z 12.5N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 12.6N 134.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 12.8N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 13.1N 138.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  31/0600Z 13.4N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  31/1800Z 13.6N 142.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z 14.1N 145.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  02/1800Z 14.7N 149.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}