{"id": "1205464946614992899", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-28T21:00:00Z", "msg": "792\nWTPZ41 KNHC 282031\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026\n\nKarina is slowly becoming better organized, with visible satellite \nimagery showing increased spiral banding around a central dense \novercast. The low-level center is still on the southwestern side of \nthe convection, but the distance is decreasing to the mid-level \ncenter.  A recent scatterometer pass shows maximum winds near 50 \nkt, and given the known low bias of ASCAT, the intensity is set to \n55 kt, which also matches the latest TAFB classification.\n \nKarina is moving northwestward at about 9 kt.  There are no \nchanges in the synoptic pattern to report as a mid-level ridge\nover the SW United States should gradually build westward.  This \nevolution forces Karina to turn west-northwestward and westward this\nweekend.  A bend back to the northwest is likely early next week\ndue to the ridge being weakened by an approaching mid-latitude \ntrough.  The guidance envelope is very similar to the last forecast \nadvisory, and the new forecast is close to the previous one, near \nthe latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) model.\n\nThere is some increasing confidence that Karina will become a \nstrong hurricane with signs of inner-core alignment ongoing.  Given \nthe light shear, it seems very likely that sometime this weekend \nthe low- and mid-level centers will become positioned for \nsignificant strengthening in otherwise conducive large-scale \nconditions.  Thus the new forecast is higher than the last one, and \ncould be conservative near peak intensity given rising rapid \nintensification probabilities from SHIPS and DTOPS.  Weakening \nshould begin in 4 days or so due to the cyclone moving over the \ncooling waters of the eastern Pacific.   \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/2100Z 13.7N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 14.6N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 15.9N 118.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 16.9N 120.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 17.5N 121.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  31/0600Z 17.9N 123.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  31/1800Z 18.2N 125.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z 19.1N 128.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  02/1800Z 20.0N 130.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}