{"msg": "421\nAXPZ20 KNHC 281547\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Karina is centered near 13.2N 115.0W at 28/1500\nUTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 18 ft (5.0 m). Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. \nKarina is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion \nis expected to continue over the next day or so, followed by a \nmore westward turn. Strengthening is forecast and Karina is \nlikely to become a large hurricane well offshore of the coast of \nSW Mexico over the weekend. Swells generated by Karina will begin\nto affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.5N 132.8W at 28/1500\nUTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). \nNumerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm\nW semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the north-northwest. A \nturn toward the west is expected by tomorrow, with that motion \ncontinuing into early next week. Strengthening is likely during \nthe next several days, and Lowell is forecast to become a \nhurricane over the weekend.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 94W north of 06N into SE Mexico,\nmoving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Numerous moderate to strong\nconvection is seen from 08N to 12N between 90W and 98W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 10N106W, and from 10N138W\nto 10N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina Lowell and\nthe tropical wave, numerous moderate to strong convection is active\nfrom 03N to 07N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered\nmoderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N W \nof 116W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical\nStorm Karina.\nFresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery\nof Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Marine conditions\nwill continue to deteriorate in the this area, and Tropical Storm\nconditions are possible tonight and Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE gap\nwinds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In the Gulf of\nCalifornia, light to gentle winds and slight seas are occurring.\nElsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate\nwinds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina is near 13.2N 115.0W at 8 AM \nPDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds \nare 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure \nis 999 mb. Karina will move to 14.1N 116.0W this evening, \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 15.6N 117.8W Sat morning, 16.7N \n119.6W Sat evening, 17.6N 121.4W Sun morning, 18.0N 123.0W Sun \nevening, and 18.3N 124.7W Mon morning. Karina will change little \nin intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 127.8W early Tue. Fresh \nto strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf \nof Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at\ntimes, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of \nfresh to locally strong southeasterly winds is possible in the\nnorthern Gulf of California tonight through Sun night. Looking \nahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this \nweekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental \nconditions appear favorable for gradual development of this \nsystem, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next \nweek while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to \n15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a similar\npath to Karina. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas there. Gentle \nto moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms are active off Colombia and south of \nthe Azuero Peninsula to about 03N. \nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming\nweekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter.\nAssociated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to \nthe outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly\nwinds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into \nearly next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with \nmainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the \nmonsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell.\nThe remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle is near 24N130W \nwith a central pressure of 1007 mb. Fresh to strong winds and \nmoderate seas are occurring from 26N to 29N between 127W and \n133W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the \nremainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon \ntrough away from the two tropical storms and Post-Tropical \ncyclone Iselle. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters \nfrom 04N to 18N between 105W and 118W. Seas are mainly moderate \nacross the remainder of the open waters.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina is near 13.2N 115.0W at \n8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 999 mb. Karina will move to 14.1N 116.0W this \nevening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.6N 117.8W Sat morning,\n16.7N 119.6W Sat evening, 17.6N 121.4W Sun morning, 18.0N 123.0W\nSun evening, and 18.3N 124.7W Mon morning. Karina will change \nlittle in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 127.8W early Tue.\nTropical Storm Lowell is near 12.5N 132.8W at 8 AM PDT, and is\nmoving north-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40\nkt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003\nmb. Lowell will move to 12.6N 133.1W this evening, 12.8N 134.3W\nSat morning, 13.0N 135.6W Sat evening, 13.2N 137.5W Sun morning,\nstrengthen to a hurricane near 13.5N 139.1W Sun evening, and\n13.7N 140.9W Mon morning. Lowell will change little in intensity\nas it moves to near 14.2N 144.2W early Tue. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205409113325535235", "issued": "2026-08-28T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205409113325535235"}