{"id": "1205397171300696067", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-28T15:00:00Z", "msg": "065\nWTNT44 KNHC 281446\nTCDAT4\n \nRemnants Of Dolly Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026\n1100 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026\n\nDuring the past few hours, the center of Dolly passed just north of \nNOAA buoy 41041, which did not observe any westerly winds. \nExamination of high-resolution satellite imagery also does not \nreadily indicate any westerly winds south of the center.  Based on \nthis, Dolly has become an open tropical wave, with the initial and \nforecast positions being that of the vorticity maximum. The initial \nintensity remains 35 kt, with those winds occurring north of the \nvorticity center.\n\nThe system is moving 280/22 kt, and this motion should continue for \nthe next 24 h.  After that time, a general westward to west- \nnorthwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed should \ntake the remnants of Dolly near the Leeward Island Saturday night or \nSunday, and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday \nafternoon or Sunday night. A continued west-northwestward motion is \nexpected after that, with the remnants moving through the Greater \nAntilles or the Bahamas during the early part of next week.\n\nThe system is currently in a hostile environment with significant \nsouthwesterly shear and dry air. These conditions should continue \nfor at least the next 2-3 days, and the remnants should slowly \nweaken during this time. The official forecast shows 24 h of points \nwhere the maximum winds are at tropical-storm force and there is a \nwell-defined vorticity center. After that, the winds are expected to \ndecrease below 35 kt, and the system center is expected to become \nless well-defined. Some global models hint at the possibility that \nDolly could regenerate in several days, but at this time there is \npoor agreement on where and when this might occur. Should conditions \nwarrant, further information regarding the potential redevelopment \nof the remnants of Dolly will be provided in subsequent Tropical \nWeather Outlooks.\n\nThis is the last advisory on Dolly issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter. Additional information on this system can be found in High \nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS \nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at \nocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward \nIslands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the \nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This \nheavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain \nof the Leeward Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/1500Z 15.0N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  29/0000Z 15.6N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  29/1200Z 16.4N  54.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}