{"id": "1205396771339403267", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-28T15:00:00Z", "msg": "970\nWTPZ41 KNHC 281444\nTCDEP1\n \nTropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n800 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026\n\nIt is a bit challenging to find the center of Karina this morning \non conventional satellite imagery, though it appears to be near a \nnew convective burst on the northwestern side of the cloud envelope. \nA recent GMI microwave pass shows a tilted structure, with the \nlow-level center a bit southwest of the mid-level core.  Dvorak \nestimates haven't changed much since the last advisory, so the \ninitial intensity remains 45 kt.  \n \nKarina is moving northwestward at about 9 kt.  A mid-level ridge \nover the SW United States should gradually build westward, causing \nthe tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward and westward this \nweekend.  A bend back to the northwest is possible early next week \ndue to the ridge being eroded by a mid-latitude trough.  There is a \nsubtle southward and leftward guidance change on this cycle, and the \nnew forecast moves in that direction, close to a blend of the latest \nHFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) \naids.\n\nThe intensity forecast is difficult because while the large-scale \nenvironmental conditions are quite conducive for intensification, \nthe inner-core structure is still broad and misaligned.  Given the \nlow shear, the inner core should eventually organize, but the \ntiming on this alignment is hard to forecast.  While guidance has \ncome down somewhat on this cycle, there's enough uncertainty to \nstay on the higher end of the guidance, just below the HCCA model, \nuntil better evidence emerges that it will struggle more like the \nregional hurricane guidance.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/1500Z 13.2N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 14.1N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 15.6N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 16.7N 119.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 17.6N 121.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  31/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  31/1200Z 18.3N 124.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z 19.1N 127.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  02/1200Z 20.2N 130.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n \n"}