{"msg": "217\nAXNT20 KNHC 281007\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0955 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Dolly is centered near 14.5N 44.8W at 28/0900 UTC\nor 990 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Scattered\nmoderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 NM\nof the center in the eastern semicircle. Dolly is expected to \ncontinue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, this \nsystem, or its remnants, should be nearing the Leeward Islands this\nweekend. Little change in strength is likely during the next \ncouple of days, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical\nwave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain from Dolly\ncould affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, with \nrainfall moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and \nHispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash \nflooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly\nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 19N, moving\nwestward at about 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough\naxis.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 21N, moving\nwestward around 15 kt. No deep convection is noted in association\nwith this system.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 21N, moving\nquickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms are found near the northern portion of the wave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near \n18N16W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 08N44W to 07N56W. \nNo deep convection is present near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA stationary front over the southern and SE United States supports\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern \nGulf waters. Moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are \npresent in the eastern Bay of Campeche, while a weak pressure \ngradient elsewhere maintains light to gentle winds and slight \nseas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf\nwaters through the next several days, supporting moderate or\nlighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to\nlocally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the\nevenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the\npeninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the\nnorthern Gulf waters during the next few days producing\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can\nexpect gusty winds and higher seas associated with these storms.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores supports fresh to\nstrong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central \nCaribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas \nare found in the north- central and eastern Caribbean, Gulf of \nHonduras and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds\nand slight to moderate seas prevail. A few showers and isolated\nthunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean.\nFor the forecast, high pressure north of the islands will support\nfresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the \nsouth- central Caribbean through the weekend. Winds will diminish \nsome early next week, before increasing again midweek as the ridge\nbuilds back in. Winds will freshen up in the eastern Caribbean \nearly next week. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 14.5N 44.8W at 5 AM \nEDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 \nkt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 \nmb. Dolly will move to 15.1N 48.3W this afternoon, 15.9N 52.8W Sat\nmorning, become post-tropical and move to 16.6N 57.3W Sat \nafternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 17.2N 61.4W Sun morning, \n18.0N 64.5W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nthe Tropical Storm Dolly centered well east of the Leeward Islands.\nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters\nbetween Bermuda and the Greater Antilles, especially between 62W\nand 73W associated with an upper level low moving across the\nBahamas. At the surface, a broad subtropical ridge supports\nmoderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across\nmuch of the SW North Atlantic.\nAside from the winds associated with Tropical Storm Dolly, trades\nare moderate to locally fresh across the central and eastern tropical\nNorth Atlantic with moderate seas. However, a tighter pressure\ngradient sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 4-8\nft north of 19N and east of 21W. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate\nthe SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting \nmainly moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. Winds \nwill pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. \nTropical Storm Dolly is near 14.5N 44.8W at 5 AM EDT, and is \nmoving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts\nto 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will\nmove to 15.1N 48.3W this afternoon, 15.9N 52.8W Sat morning, \nbecome post- tropical and move to 16.6N 57.3W Sat afternoon, \nweaken to a remnant low near 17.2N 61.4W Sun morning, 18.0N 64.5W \nSun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205342326700244995", "issued": "2026-08-28T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205342326700244995"}