{"id": "1205323756273270786", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-28T09:00:00Z", "msg": "771\nWTNT44 KNHC 280833\nTCDAT4\n \nTropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026\n500 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026\n \nThere has been little change with Dolly overnight. The storm is \nproducing a small area of deep convection near and to the northeast \nof the center, but dry air is entraining into the southern half of \nthe circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in \nagreement with last night's ASCAT data and the latest satellite \nestimates. Satellite images also suggest that the low-level \ncirculation could be losing some definition.\n \nThe storm is moving rapidly westward at about 21 kt, and that motion\nis expected to continue as it remains located to the south of a\nstrong subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast lies on the\nfast side of the guidance, as most of the models often have a\nslow bias for weak systems in this region.\n \nThe combination of increasing southerly vertical wind shear, dry \nair, and Dolly's fast forward speed should limit any notable \nintensification. In fact, all of the reliable models show the storm \ngradually losing strength and degenerating into a trough of low \npressure before it reaches the Lesser Antilles this weekend. \nPost-tropical positions are provided from 36-60 h given the risk of \ngusty winds and heavy rainfall, however, it seems unlikely that \nDolly will have a closed circulation at those times.\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward\nIslands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the\nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This\nheavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of\nhigher terrain of the Leeward Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0900Z 14.5N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 15.1N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 15.9N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 16.6N  57.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  30/0600Z 17.2N  61.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  30/1800Z 18.0N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}