{"msg": "490\nAXPZ20 KNHC 280826\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0820 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Karina is centered near 12.7N 114.3W at 28/0900\nUTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous \nmoderate to strong thunderstorms extend 240 nm in the NW and 120 \nnm SE semicircles. Karina is moving toward the west- northwest \nand this general motion is expected to continue over the next \nseveral days, reaching its closest point of approach to Clarion \nIsland late Fri night into early Sat. Strengthening is \nanticipated, and Karina is forecast to become a hurricane over \nthe weekend. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin\nto affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office. Please read the \nlatest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center\nat website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 11.7N 133.0W at 28/0900\nUTC, moving east-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). \nNumerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 270 nm in\nthe SW semicircle and 120 nm in the NE semicircle. Lowell is \nmoving toward the east-northeast, with a westward motion \nexpected by Saturday. Strengthening is likely during the next \nseveral days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Sunday. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 92W north of 06N into\nChiapas, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby \nconvection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence \nZone/Monsoon Trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 09N107W, and from \n12N118W to 13N130W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection \nnear Karina and Lowell, scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is active from 05N to 115N between 85W and 120W, and \nfrom 05N to 12N between 130W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on\nrecently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina.\nWinds are increasing along with building seas just south of the \nRevillagigedo Islands ahead of T.S. Karina. Fresh to strong N to \nNE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to \nmoderate winds and 3-5 ft seas persist elsewhere over the \noffshore waters of Mexico.\nFor the forecast, Karina will move to 13.6N 115.5W this afternoon, strengthen to a\nhurricane near 15.1N 116.9W Sat morning, 16.5N 118.9W Sat\nafternoon, 17.5N 120.7W Sun morning, 18.2N 122.5W Sun afternoon,\nand 18.4N 124.2W Mon morning. Karina will change little in\nintensity as it moves to 19.3N 127.3W early Tue. Fresh to strong\nnortherly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at \ntimes, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of \nfresh to locally strong southeasterly winds is possible \nassociated with convective complexes may move up the central and \nnorthern Gulf of California both tonight and Sat nights. Looking\nahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this \nweekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental \nconditions appear favorable for gradual development of this \nsystem, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next \nweek while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to\n15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a \nsimilar path to Karina. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist the Gulf of Papagayo \ndownwind to near 10N90W, with 5 to 7 ft seas there. Gentle to\nmoderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms are active off Colombia and in the Gulf\nof Panama.\nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming\nweekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter.\nAssociated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to \nthe outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly\nwinds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into \nearly next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with \nmainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the \nmonsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm\nLowell.\nThe remnant 1007 mb low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 24N130W \nwith fresh to strong winds around rough seas within 180 nm in the\nnorthwest quadrant of the low. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or \nweaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north\nand south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical \nstorms and Post- Tropical Iselle. Rough seas in mainly SW swell \nsurround Karina covering the waters south of 16N between 105W and\n120W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open \nwaters.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move to 13.6N 115.5W this afternoon, strengthen to a\nhurricane near 15.1N 116.9W Sat morning, 16.5N 118.9W Sat\nafternoon, 17.5N 120.7W Sun morning, 18.2N 122.5W Sun afternoon,\nand 18.4N 124.2W Mon morning. Karina will change little in\nintensity as it moves to 19.3N 127.3W early Tue. Tropical Storm \nLowell will move to 12.1N 132.8W this afternoon, 12.3N\n133.6W Sat morning, 12.5N 134.8W Sat afternoon, 12.7N 136.4W Sun\nmorning, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.9N 138.1W Sun\nafternoon, and 13.1N 139.8W Mon morning. Lowell will change\nlittle in intensity as it moves west of 140W late Mon. The \nremnant low of Iselle will open up into a trough late today \nwhile remnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west- northwest\nto 140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Looking \nahead, much larger and more expansive southwesterly swell may \nimpact the southern waters by early next week. Also, another area\nof low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the \nsouth of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear \nfavorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining \nincreasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205322439163346946", "issued": "2026-08-28T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205322439163346946"}