{"msg": "692\nAXNT20 KNHC 280504\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.8N 42.3W at 28/0300 UTC\nor 1140 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 20 kt.\nEstimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained\nwind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12 \nft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring\nwithin 90 NM of the center in the northern semicircle. A fast \nwestward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of \ndays. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing the \nLeeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is likely \nduring the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into\na tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain\nfrom Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into \nSunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico \nand Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce \nflash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward \nIslands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly\nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details.\nCaribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will \nsupport fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to \nlocally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through \nearly next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off \nColombia. The ASCAT scatterometer passes around 0130 UTC showed\npeak winds of near gale at 12N75W. Please refer to the latest \nHIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 25W, south of\n20N over the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about 15\nkt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-13N between\n24W-29W. \nA new tropical wave was introduced in Atlantic approaching the\nLesser Antilles along 57W south of 20N. It is likely moving\nwestward around 15 kt. No deep convection is noted in association\nwith this system.\nA tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 71W, south of\n19N from Hispaniola to Venezuela. It is quickly moving westward \nat around 20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this \nwave.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough exits West Africa from the Senegal coast near\n14N17W and extends southwestward to 10N24W. The ITCZ starts at\n09N36W to 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate \nconvection is noted from 09N-13N between 24W-29W. \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak 1015 mb high is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W.\nWinds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1-3 ft.\nIsolated moderate convection is noted north of 24N east of 90W.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf\nwaters through the next several days, supporting moderate or \nlighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to \nlocally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the \nevenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the \npeninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the \nnorthern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty \nwinds and higher seas associated with these storms.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on the \nGale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia.\nOther than the gale winds just north of Colombia for a few more\nhours, fresh to near gale trades are occurring over the central\nCaribbean with seas 6-11 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or\nweaker with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is\noccurring south of 12N west of 80W, associated with the eastern\nextent of the northeast Pacific monsoon trough.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will \nsupport fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to \nlocally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through \nearly next week. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off \nColombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the \nWindward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.8N \n42.3W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained\nwinds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.3N 45.7W Fri morning, \n15.2N 50.2W Fri evening, 16.0N 54.7W Sat morning, become post- \ntropical and move to 16.7N 59.0W Sat evening, weaken to a remnant \nlow near 17.0N 63.0W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nthe Tropical Storm Dolly.\nAside from the winds associated with Tropical Storm Dolly, the\ntrades are moderate or weaker across the tropical North Atlantic\nexcept for fresh to locally strong N along Western Sahara and\nMauritania. Seas are 3-7 ft across forecast waters. A weak surface\ntrough extends from 28N67W to 31N65W and is associated with\nisolated moderate convection north of 22N between 61W-70W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate\nthe SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting \nmainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds\nwill pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at \nnight. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.8N 42.3W at 11 PM EDT, and \nis moving west at 20 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with \ngusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly\nwill move to 14.3N 45.7W Fri morning, 15.2N 50.2W Fri evening, \n16.0N 54.7W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.7N \n59.0W Sat evening, weaken to a remnant low near 17.0N 63.0W Sun \nmorning, and dissipate Sun evening.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205282614249783298", "issued": "2026-08-28T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205282614249783298"}