{"msg": "484\nAXPZ20 KNHC 280328\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Karina is centered near 11.9N 112.7W at 28/0300\nUTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). \nNumerous moderate to strong thunderstorms extend 240 nm in the NW\nand 120 nm SE semicircles. Karina is moving toward the west- \nnorthwest and this general motion is expected to continue over \nthe next several days, reaching its closest point of approach to\nClarion Island late Fri night into early Sat. Strengthening is \nanticipated, and Karina is forecast to become a hurricane over \nthe weekend. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin\nto affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office. Please read the \nlatest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center\nat website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 11.4N 133.5W at 28/0300\nUTC, moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). \nNumerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 270 nm in\nthe SW semicircle and 120 nm in the NE semicircle. Lowell is \nmoving toward the east-northeast, with a westward motion \nexpected by Saturday. Strengthening is likely during the next \nseveral days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Sunday. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 90W north of 06N into El\nSalvador and Guatemala, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt.\nAny nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical \nConvergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 98W north of 03N to near \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. \nAny nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical \nConvergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 09N107W, and\nfrom 12N117W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection near\nKarina and Lowell, scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is active from 05N to 115N between 85W and 120W, and\nfrom 05N to 12N between 130W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on\nrecently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina.\nWinds are likely starting to increase along with building seas just\nsouth of the Revillagigedo Islands ahead of T.S. Karina. Fresh to\nstrong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nGentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas persist elsewhere over\nthe offshore waters of Mexico.\nFor the forecast, Karina will move to 12.9N 114.1W Fri morning, \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 14.3N 115.5W Fri evening, and to  \n15.7N 117.2W by Sat morning, southwest of Clarion Island. Karina\nwill move to 17.0N 118.8W Sat evening, 17.8N 120.5W Sun morning,\nand 18.3N 122.3W Sun evening. Karina will change little in \nintensity as it continues to move W-NW to 18.8N 125.4W by late \nMon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse \nin the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough \nseas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh \nthereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly \nwinds is possible associated with convective complexes may move \nup the central and northern Gulf of California both Fri and Sat \nnights. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast \nto form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development\nof this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nearly next week while it moves west- northwestward to \nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds \nand seas along a similar path to Karina. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist the Gulf of Papagayo \ndownwind to near 10N90W, with 5 to 7 ft seas there. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate \nseas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern \nPanama. Very active showers and thunderstorms are present over \nthe outer offshore waters areas of the offshore waters from \nColombia northward as described in the monsoon trough section \nabove with locally higher winds and seas possible there.\nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming\nweekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter.\nAssociated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to \nthe outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly\nwinds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into \nearly next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with \nmainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the \nmonsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm\nLowell.\nThe remnant 1008 mb low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 24N128W \nwith fresh to strong winds around rough seas within 180 nm in the\nnorthwest quadrant of the low. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or \nweaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north\nand south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms \nand Post- Tropical Iselle. Rough seas in mainly SW swell surround\nKarina covering the waters south of 16N between 105W and 120W. \nSeas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move Karina will move to 12.9N 114.1W Fri morning, strengthen to\na hurricane near 14.3N 115.5W Fri evening, 15.7N 117.2W Sat\nmorning, 17.0N 118.8W Sat evening, 17.8N 120.5W Sun morning, and\n18.3N 122.3W Sun evening. Karina will change little in intensity\nas it moves to 18.8N 125.4W late Mon. Tropical Storm Lowell will\nmove Lowell will move to 11.8N 133.0W Fri morning, 12.3N 133.2W\nFri evening, 12.5N 134.3W Sat morning, 12.7N 135.8W Sat evening,\n12.9N 137.5W Sun morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near\n13.2N 139.3W Sun evening. Lowell will change little in intensity\nas it moves west of 140W late Mon. The remnant low of Iselle \nwill gradually open up into a trough by the upcoming weekend \nwhile remnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west-northwest \nto 140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Large \nsouthwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through \ntonight before decaying and becoming confined to a large area \naround developing Karina. Looking ahead, much larger and more \nexpansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by \nearly next week. Also, another area of low pressure is forecast \nto form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development\nof this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nearly next week while it moves west- northwestward to \nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds \nand seas along a similar path to Karina.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205263836549185538", "issued": "2026-08-28T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205263836549185538"}