{"id": "1205255885045825538", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-28T03:00:00Z", "msg": "473\nWTPZ42 KNHC 280248\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026\n500 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026\n \nSatellite imagery shows a large area of deep convection that has\nbeen persisting with Lowell, with a ball of deep convection near and\nover the center, and a curved band noted as well.  A 27/2204Z AMSR-2\npass also shows the same curved banding pattern.  Earlier\nscatterometer data showed that the center was slightly elongated,\nwith tropical-storm-force winds confined to the southern semicircle\nand a radius of maximum wind (RMW) of about 50 n mi.  The latest\nTAFB Dvorak classification is T2.5/35 kt and objective estimates\nhave been ranging from 30-42 kt.  The initial intensity is held at\n35 kt for this advisory, but given the impressive banding and\nmaintenance of deep convection, this estimate could be slightly\nconservative.\n \nThe initial motion estimate remains slowly east-northeastward, or 70\ndegrees at 4 kt.  A slow counterclockwise turn toward the north and\nthen the west is expected over the next 36 h as ridging builds in\nto the northeast and north.  A generally westward to\nwest-northwestward motion should then continue for the rest of the\nforecast period.  There remains a ton of spread in the forward speed\nfrom 72 to 120 h, which could be related to Karina's location and\nsize, relative to Lowell's.  The NHC track is a little faster toward\nthe west than the previous forecast beyond 36 hours, but not nearly\nas fast as the HCCA and GDMI.\n \nLowell will be over relatively favorable environmental conditions\nfor the next 5 days, with warm sea-surface temperatures, light to\nmoderate easterly wind shear and relatively moist air.  Despite\nthese favorable conditions, it is a bit perplexing that the models\nare so slow to strengthen Lowell to a hurricane.  Perhaps the slow\nstrengthening at first could be due to the large RMW observed on\nthe previous ASCAT pass along with the moderate easterly shear.  If\nthe cyclone is able to gain enough latitude and get north of 13N,\nit should find itself in a more favorable upper-level environment,\nwhich could allow for more significant strengthening in a few days.\nLittle change has been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast\nin the first 4 days, but a higher intensity is shown at day 5.  The\nNHC intensity forecast is higher than the intensity consensus, but\nnot as high as the HMON and HCCA, which bring Lowell to major\nhurricane strength by day 5.  The confidence in the intensity\nforecast is below average, and it is possible that Lowell could\nstrengthen more than forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0300Z 11.4N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 11.8N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 12.3N 133.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 12.5N 134.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 12.7N 135.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  30/1200Z 12.9N 137.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  31/0000Z 13.2N 139.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  01/0000Z 13.5N 142.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  02/0000Z 13.9N 146.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}