{"id": "1205255164989145090", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-28T03:00:00Z", "msg": "369\nWTNT44 KNHC 280244\nTCDAT4\n \nTropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026\n1100 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026\n\nDolly appears to be more or less maintaining its intensity at this \ntime.  However, the associated deep convection is not very \nwell-organized, with no well-defined banding features evident on \nsatellite images.  The center of circulation is estimated to be on \nthe north side of the main area of convection.  The Dvorak \nintensity estimate from TAFB remains at 35 kt.  There was a \nMetop-B scatterometer pass from just before 00Z which showed just a\ncouple of 35-kt vectors.  Therefore the advisory intensity is kept \nat 35 kt.  The scatterometer pass did not completely capture the \ncirculation of the storm but it did suggest some \nnorth-northeastward to south-southwestward elongation of the center.\n\nThe storm continues to move quickly toward the west and the initial \nmotion estimate is 280/20 kt, about the same as before.  Dolly is \nforecast to move mainly westward at a fast forward speed for the \nnext couple of days on the south side of a strong high pressure \nridge over the central Atlantic.  There have been no significant \nchanges in the track guidance from earlier today.  There is \nfairly good agreement amongst the various model tracks, and the \nofficial track forecast is roughly in the middle of these tracks.  \nThis is close to the latest Google DeepMind solution.\n\nAlthough it will encounter warmer ocean waters, Dolly is likely to \nmove into less favorable atmospheric conditions during the next \ncouple of days.  Some slight short-term strengthening is possible, \nbut increasing vertical wind shear, relatively dry air and the \nfast forward motion of the system should begin to adversely affect \nDolly fairly soon.  The global models show the system degenerating \ninto a tropical wave while it approaches the Lesser Antilles, and \nthe NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.   \nPost-tropical positions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of \ngusty winds and heavy rainfall.\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward\nIslands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the\nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This\nheavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of\nhigher terrain of the Leeward Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0300Z 13.8N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 14.3N  45.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 15.2N  50.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 16.0N  54.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 16.7N  59.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 60H  30/1200Z 17.0N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}