{"msg": "405\nAXNT20 KNHC 272210 AAA\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion...Updated\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026\nUpdated for details on Tropical Storm Dolly\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1930 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.7N 40.7W at 27/2100 UTC\nor 1240 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt.\nEstimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained\nwind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently\naround 12.5 ft (4.0 m). Numerous moderate isolated strong\nconvection is noted within 240 nm in the SE semicircle and 90 nm in \nthe NW semicircle. Dolly is moving toward the west and this motion \nis expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast \ntrack, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this \nweekend. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48 \nhours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave \nbefore it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain from Dolly could \naffect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall \nmoving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday \nand Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially \nin areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. Please read the \nlatest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center t \nwebsite - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the \nlatest Dolly NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCaribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will \nsupport fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very \nrough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-\nforce tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS\nFORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along  has emerged off the \ncoast of Africa and has been analyzed along 22W, south of 18N and\napproaching the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about\n15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from\n07N to 14N between 21W and 26W.\nA tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central\nCaribbean now along 68W, south of 20N near the Mona Passage to\nportions of Venezuela, moving westward at around 20 kt. No \nsignificant convection is observed with this wave except over the\nMona Passage and it may be helping to enhance diurnal convection\nover portions of Hispaniola.\nA western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N\nto across portions of eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua,\nmoving quickly westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is\nnoted with this wave but some isolated to scattered showers and\nthunderstorms are possible in the Gulf of Honduras area.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5 and extends \nsouthwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ extends from southwest of Dolly\nat 08N46W to near the coast of NE Venezuela at 11N62W. Other than\nthe convection described with Dolly and the tropical wave above,\nno significant convection is found with the monsoon trough and\nITCZ.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA frontal trough is over the north-central and NE Gulf with\nscattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters north of 26N\nand east of 94W. Otherwise, 1014 mb high pressure is centered in\nthe SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico with light to gentle\nanticyclone winds dominating the basin, locally higher in any\nconvection. Seas are mainly slight, except locally higher in any\nconvection.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf\nwaters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong\nwith moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to\na diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each \nnight. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf \nwaters during the next few days producing scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher\nseas associated with these storms.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on the \nGale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia.\nOther than scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean\nmainly south of 11N near the monsoon trough, no significant\nconvection is noted over the basin. Fresh to strong trades are\nfound from 10N to 17N with 7 to 11 ft seas. Moderate to fresh\ntrades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 10N to 18N, with\ngentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, except slight in the\nlee of Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula offshore Mexico.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will \nsupport fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to \nlocally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the\nforecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off \nColombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the \nWindward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N \n40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning, \n14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon, 15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-\ntropical and move to 16.5N 57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun \nmorning, and dissipate Sun afternoon.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nthe Tropical Storm Dolly.\nA surface trough located SE of Bermuda extends from 30N59W to\n22N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found within 90 nm\neither side of the trough. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms\nare possible over the western Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula.\nThe strongest winds away from Dolly are found offshore Africa,\nnorth of 18N and east of 20W where fresh to strong speeds are\nfound. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found across the remainder\nof the waters north of 15N and east of 35W. Winds are moderate or\nweaker elsewhere under a relatively relaxed pressure gradient.\nMainly slight seas are found west of 70W, and moderate elsewhere\naway from Dolly.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate\nthe SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting \nmainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds\nwill pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at \nnight. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N 40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and \nis moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with \ngusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly\nwill move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning, 14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon, \n15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.5N \n57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun \nafternoon.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205201344430243842", "issued": "2026-08-27T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205201344430243842"}