{"msg": "788\nAXPZ20 KNHC 272050\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1900 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nNewly upgraded Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 11.1N\n111.9W at 27/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind \nspeed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently \naround 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection \ncovers and expansive area, within 900 nm in the SE semicircle and\n240 nm in the NW semicircle. Please read the latest HIGH \nSEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 11.3N 133.8W at 27/2100\nUTC, moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). \nNumerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 330 nm in\nthe SE semicircle and 105 nm in the NW semicircle. Please read \nthe latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml\nand the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory \nat www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 85W north of 06N to across\nportions of western Costa Rica and central Nicaragua, moving \nquickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby convection is \ndescribed below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon \nTrough section below.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 95.5W north of 03N to near\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving quickly westward at around 20 \nkt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical\nConvergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to the Gulf\nof Papagayo near 10N85W to 08N93W to near newly upgraded Tropical\nStorm Karina at 10.5N111.5W to 14N131W to Tropical Storm Lowell \nnear 11.5N134W to beyond 09N140W. Other than the convection \nmentioned above in the Special Features section, scattered to \nnumerous moderate isolated strong convection covers the waters \nroughly from 02N to 15N between 78W and 101W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on\nrecently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina.\nA recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong winds in\nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Winds are\nmoderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters with\nmoderate seas, except slight in the Gulf of California. Very active\nshowers and thunderstorms are present over the offshore waters \nof southern and southwestern Mexico as described with Karina\nabove, with locally higher winds and seas possible there.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move to 12.2N \n113.3W Fri morning, 13.5N 114.8W Fri afternoon, strengthen to a \nhurricane near 14.9N 116.4W Sat morning, 16.2N 118.0W Sat \nafternoon, 17.4N 119.6W Sun morning, and 18.1N 121.4W Sun \nafternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to \n18.6N 124.8W Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds \nwill continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early \nSun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to \nmoderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong \nsoutheasterly winds is possible associated with convective \ncomplexes may move up the central and northern Gulf of California\nboth Fri and Sat nights. Looking ahead, another area of low \npressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of \nsouthwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable \nfor gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression\nis likely to form early next week while it moves west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining \nincreasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo\ndownwind to near 10N90W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with\n5 to 7 ft seas there. Winds are moderate or weaker across the \noffshore waters, with moderate seas, except slight near the \ncoasts of Colombia and eastern Panama. Very active showers and \nthunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of\nthe offshore waters from Colombia northward as described in the \nmonsoon trough section above with locally higher winds and seas \npossible there.\nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue\nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming\nweekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter.\nAssociated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to \nthe outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly\nwinds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into \nearly next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with \nmainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the \nmonsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina, and on recently\nupgraded Tropical Storm Lowell.\nThe remnant 1007 mb low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 23.5N127W\nwith fresh to strong winds around rough seas from 20N to 30N \nbetween 124W and 133W. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds\ndominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of\nthe monsoon trough away from the Special Features systems and\nPost-Tropical Iselle. Rough seas in mainly SW swell surround\nKarina covering the waters south of 16N between 104W and 119W.\nSeas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move to 12.2N \n113.3W Fri morning, 13.5N 114.8W Fri afternoon, strengthen to a \nhurricane near 14.9N 116.4W Sat morning, 16.2N 118.0W Sat \nafternoon, 17.4N 119.6W Sun morning, and 18.1N 121.4W Sun \nafternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to \n18.6N 124.8W Mon afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to\n11.6N 133.3W Fri morning, 12.1N 133.2W Fri afternoon, 12.6N \n133.7W Sat morning, 12.9N 134.8W Sat afternoon, 13.0N 136.3W Sun \nmorning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 13.2N 138.0W Sun \nafternoon. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to \n13.4N 141.6W Mon afternoon. The remnant low of Iselle will \ngradually open up into a trough by the upcoming weekend while \nremnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west-northwest to \n140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Large \nsouthwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through \ntonight before decaying and becoming confined to a large area \naround developing Karina. Looking ahead, much larger and more \nexpansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by \nearly next week. Also, another area of low pressure is forecast \nto form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development\nof this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nearly next week while it moves west- northwestward to \nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds \nand seas along a similar path to Karina.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205185472328990722", "issued": "2026-08-27T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205185472328990722"}