{"id": "1205184679004110850", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-27T21:00:00Z", "msg": "684\nWTPZ42 KNHC 272046\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026\n1100 AM HST Thu Aug 27 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that the disturbance well to the \nwest-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula and well \neast-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has developed well-organized \nconvective bands. Recently received ASCAT data showed a closed \ncirculation which, while elongated NE-SW, was producing winds near \n35 kt about 50 n mi southeast of the center.  Based on this, \nadvisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Lowell.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 065/4 kt.  During the \nnext day or two, Lowell is expected to turn westward as a low- to \nmid-level ridge builds to the north.  A generally westward motion \nshould continue for the rest of the forecast period. The guidance \nhas some spread in the forward speed by 120 h, which seems to be \ndue to possible effects on the steering flow by the larger Tropical \nStorm Karina to the east. The forecast track is near the center of \nthe guidance envelope and splits the speed difference between the \nmodels.\n\nLowell will be over warm sea surface temperatures during the next \nfive days and in an environment of light to moderate easterly \nshear. This should allow steady strengthening, and the initial \nintensity forecast is near the center of the intensity guidance.  \nSince the environment is favorable and some of the guidance is \nstronger than the current forecast, it is possible that Lowell will \nstrengthen more and faster than currently forecast.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/2100Z 11.3N 133.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 11.6N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 12.1N 133.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 12.6N 133.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 12.9N 134.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 60H  30/0600Z 13.0N 136.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 13.2N 138.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  31/1800Z 13.4N 141.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  01/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n \n"}