{"id": "1205183599871524866", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-27T21:00:00Z", "msg": "403\nWTNT44 KNHC 272040\nTCDAT4\n \nTropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026\n500 PM AST Thu Aug 27 2026\n\nDolly has been struggling to develop deep thunderstorm activity \nnear the center during the day, though a new convective burst has \nrecently gone up in the southern semicircle.  Overall the \nenvironment appears rather dry, with most of the northern portion \nof the circulation exposed.  Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest \nlittle change in wind speed, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt \non this advisory.  \n \nThe initial motion estimate continues at 275/21 kt.  Dolly \nis forecast to move quickly westward for the next couple of days \nunder a strong ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.  \nThere aren't many guidance changes to report as the models are \ntightly clustered on a path towards the Leeward Islands.  No \nsignificant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast, \nremaining on the faster and southward side of the guidance \nenvelope.  \n \nThe environment around Dolly will likely become unfavorable for\nstrengthening on Friday with increasing southwesterly shear due\nto a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and\ndry air aloft.  Until then, some modest intensification is\npossible, consistent with the model consensus.  Global and regional \nmodels all show Dolly degenerating into a strong tropical wave on \nFriday or Saturday before it reaches the Leeward Islands, and our \nforecast shows this decay by the weekend.  The timing of the \ntransition was moved up slightly from the last advisory, otherwise \nno other changes were made to the forecast.  Post-tropical \npositions are provided at 48-60h given the risk of gusty winds and \nheavy rainfall.\n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Heavy rains from Dolly or its remnants could affect the Leeward \nIslands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the \nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This \nheavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of \nhigher terrain of the Leeward Islands.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/2100Z 13.7N  40.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 14.1N  43.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 14.7N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 15.6N  53.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 16.5N  57.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 60H  30/0600Z 17.3N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}