{"msg": "876\nAXNT20 KNHC 271727\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1715 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1800 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES... \nTropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.6N 38.7W at 27/1500 UTC\nor 1350 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt.\nEstimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained\nwind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 4 m in the\nNE quadrant. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing\nthe Leeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is \nforecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to \ndegenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward \nIslands. Heavy rain from this system could begin to affect the \nLeeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, the Virgin Islands, \nPuerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may \nproduce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly\nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details.\nCaribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will \nsupport fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very \nrough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-\nforce tonight off Colombia. \nPlease refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa and has \nbeen analyzed along 20.5W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate \nconvection is depicted from 06N to 14N between 20W and 24W. \nAn eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W, south of \n21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is \nobserved with this wave.\nA western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82.5W, south of \n20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The interaction with the wave\nand the eastern end of the monsoon trough is supporting scattered\nmoderate convection south of 12N and west of 80W. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17.5N16W and extends\nsouthwestward to 10N24W to 10N47W. The ITCZ continues from 10N47W\nto 11N61.5W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N \nto 14N between 56W and 60W. \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nNumerous moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted north\nof 27.5N between 83W and 95W, ahead of a stationary frontal \nboundary located over the SE United States. Similar convection is\nnoted off western Florida. A weak pressure gradient across the \nbasin supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf\nwaters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker \nwinds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong\nwith moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to\na diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each \nnight. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf \nwaters during the next few days producing scattered showers and \nisolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher\nseas associated with these storms.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on the \nGale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia.\nA few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the Gulf \nof Honduras. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and moderate seas are present in the north-\ncentral Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate \nseas prevail across the rest of the Caribbean, except for gentle \nwinds and slight seas over the NW part of the basin.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will \nsupport fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to \nlocally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the\nforecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off \nColombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the \nWindward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.6N \n38.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained\nwinds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 13.7N 42.0W this evening, \n14.4N 46.4W Fri morning, 15.1N 51.1W Fri evening, 15.9N 55.6W Sat \nmorning, become post-tropical and move to 16.7N 59.5W Sat evening,\nand 17.7N 63.2W Sun morning. Dolly will dissipate early Mon.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nthe recently upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly.\nA surface trough located SE of Bermuda is producing a few showers\nnorth of 22N and between 57W and 66W. Scattered moderate\nconvection is also found west of 75W. The SW North Atlantic is \ndominated by a weak high pressure area that supports moderate or \nlighter winds and moderate seas, west of 35W. A cold front \nextends from 30N10W to 25N26W to 28N35W, followed by a stationary \nfront north of our area. Broad high pressure also prevails across \nthe central and eastern tropical Atlantic, maintaining moderate to\nlocally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate\nthe SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting \nmainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds\nwill pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at \nnight. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.6N 38.7W at 11 AM EDT, and \nis moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with \ngusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly\nwill move to 13.7N 42.0W this evening, 14.4N 46.4W Fri morning, \n15.1N 51.1W Fri evening, 15.9N 55.6W Sat morning, become post- \ntropical and move to 16.7N 59.5W Sat evening, and 17.7N 63.2W Sun \nmorning. Dolly will dissipate early Mon.", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205145667041427458", "issued": "2026-08-27T17:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205145667041427458"}