{"id": "1205114609509498882", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-27T15:00:00Z", "msg": "153\nWTNT44 KNHC 271449\nTCDAT4\n \nTropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026\n1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026\n \nSatellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest\nAL96) has developed a well-defined center this morning along with\norganized deep convection.  There is a bit of northwesterly shear, \ncausing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the \nsouthern side of the circulation largely away from the center. \nScatterometer data shows that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in\nthe northeastern quadrant, along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt\nclassification from TAFB, so advisories are initiated on Tropical\nStorm Dolly.  \n \nThe initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt.  Dolly should continue\nmoving quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong\nridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic.  Model guidance\nis tightly packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and \nthe NHC forecast is on the faster and southward side of the \nguidance envelope.  This forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA \nmodel and the well-known bias for models to be too slow and \npoleward in the tropical Atlantic.\n\nThe environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for \nstrengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due \nto a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and \ndry air aloft.  Until then, some slight intensification is \npossible, consistent with the model consensus.  All of our guidance \nis showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it \nreaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and \npost-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds \nand heavy rainfall.  \n\nThe timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely \ncoincidental.  Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North \nAtlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists \nestablished by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV \nHurricane Committee.  The name Dolly replaced Diana after the \n1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Although Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone \nwhen it passes near the Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall could begin \nto affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the \nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This \nheavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of \nhigher terrain.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  27/1500Z 13.6N  38.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 13.7N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 14.4N  46.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 15.1N  51.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 15.9N  55.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  30/0000Z 16.7N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  30/1200Z 17.7N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}