{"msg": "601\nAXPZ20 KNHC 270420\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Iselle is centered near 23.0N 125.9W at\n27/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30\nkt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft \n(4.5 m). No significant convection is noted near the center of\nIselle. Iselle should continue to move west-northwestward over the next \ncouple of days, steered by a mid-level ridge to the north of the \ncyclone. Increasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and \na drier air mass will continue to weaken the system. The \npost-tropical remnant low is expected to gradually spin down \nand open into a trough in about 2 to 3 days. Swells generated by\nIselle will continue to affect the west coast of the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula for a couple more days. These swells are \nlikely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nIselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCentral East Pacific (Invest EP93): A broad area of low pressure\nlocated well south of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a\nlarge area of showers and thunderstorms. Although the system has\nnot become better organized over the last several hours, \nenvironmental conditions are still expected to support gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely \nto form tonight or on Thursday. The system is forecast to move \nwest-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, well offshore of Mexico.This \nsystem has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the\nnext 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather \nOutlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.\nWestern East Pacific (Invest EP94): An area of low pressure \nlocated well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has \nbecome slightly better organized over the last several hours. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development\nof this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late\nthis week or early this weekend while the system drifts to the \nnortheast, before turning westward by early next week. Please \nrefer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 89W north of 05N to across \nportions of El Salvador, moving westward around 10 kt. Any \nnearby convection is described below in the Intertropical\nConvergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 07N90W to 1006 mb low\npressure (EP93) near 09N108W to 14N160W, and from 14N130W to low\npressure near 1008 mb near 11N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate\nto isolated strong convection is active from 04N13N between 85W\nto 135W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on\nlow pressure Invest EP93 near 09N108W with the high chance for\ntropical cyclone formation.\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Iselle is well beyond the offshore waters \nof Baja California. Outer associated swells of 7 to 8 ft are \nimpacting the far Baja California Norte waters near the outer \noffshore boundary. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly gap winds\ncontinue to blow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. \nWinds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas,\nexcept slight in the Gulf of California. Active showers and \nthunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of\nsouthern and southwestern Mexico as described with Invest EP93 \nin the Special Features section above with locally higher winds \nand seas possible there.\nFor the forecast, the area of low pressure, Invest EP93, centered well\nsouthwest of southern Mexico has a chance for tropical cyclone \nformation, but stay outside of the offshore waters as it moves\nwes-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt Sun. The center of the low \npressure will make its closest point of approach within 120 nm to\nthe southwest of Clarion Island Fri night into Sat. Meanwhile, \nouter rough swells associated with Tropical Storm Iselle will \ncontinue to subside through tonight as the system continues to \npull away from the offshore waters of Baja California while \nweakening. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to \npulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally \nrough seas there at times. A surge of fresh to strong \nsoutheasterly winds likely associated with convective complexes \nmay move up the central and northern Gulf of California both Fri \nand Sat nights. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure could\nform this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual \ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression could form \nby early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward \nat 10 to 15 kt. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo\nwell downwind to near 10N93W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are\nmoderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate\nseas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern\nPanama. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the \nouter offshore waters areas from Colombia northward as described\nabove with Invest EP93 in the Special Features section, with \nlocally higher winds and seas possible there.\nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to\npulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the Sat night, then\nmoderate to fresh thereafter, with associated moderate to fresh\nwinds extending well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El\nSalvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the\nmonsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be\nmoderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas.\nConvection will remain active near the monsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about \nTropical Storm Iselle, low pressure Invest EP93 with the high chance \nof tropical cyclone formation, and another broad area of low \npressure, Invest EP94 in the far west-central waters, also with \nthe potential for tropical cyclone formation. \nOtherwise, mainly moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon\ntrough hand west of 110W. South of the monsoon trough, mainly \nmoderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of the open \nwaters with very active convection present. Seas are mainly \nmoderate, except rough near and south of 03N between 115W and \n135W in southwesterly swell.\nFor the forecast, Post-Tropical Cyclone Iselle will become a \nremnant low and move to 23.6N 127.2W Thu morning, 24.3N 128.8W \nThu evening, 24.8N 130.2W Fri morning, 25.3N 131.6W Fri evening, \nand dissipate Sat morning. Other than the two remaining Special \nFeatures areas, Invest EP93 and Invest EP94, above, large \nsouthwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through Thu \nnight before decaying. Looking ahead, much larger and more \nexpansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by \nearly next week. Little change is forecast elsewhere away from \nthe Special Features areas.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204990856869019651", "issued": "2026-08-27T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204990856869019651"}