{"msg": "047\nAXNT20 KNHC 262327\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Thu Aug 7 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES... \nEastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An 1008 mb area of low \npressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located a few \nhundred nautical miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands \nnear 12.5N31W. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this \nsystem have changed little in organization over the past several \nhours. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is\nnoted within roughly 150 nm of the center of AL96. Associated\nwinds and seas will spread west of 35W into the High Seas Forecast\narea overnight into early Thu. Environmental conditions are \nsomewhat favorable for development over the next couple of days, \nand a tropical depression could form over the next day or two as \nthe system moves westward to west- northwestward near 20 mph \nacross the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to become less conducive by this weekend, \npotentially ending its chances for development. This system has a \nmedium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 \nhours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather \nOutlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on\nthis feature.\nCaribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will \nsupport fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas \nthrough the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force \ntonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, \nalong with locally very rough seas. Please refer to the latest \nHIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more \ndetails. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W west of the Cabo\nVerde Islands, south of 21N, and is associated with Invest AL96.\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for more\ndetails and the potential for tropical cyclone formation.\nA Tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W moving across the\nLesser Antilles and into the far eastern Caribbean Sea, south of \n22N, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. No significant deep\nconvection is occurring in association with this wave over water,\nbut it may be assisting with some convection over portions of\nVenezuela.\nA central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, south of 21N\nover eastern Cuba to portions of Jamaica to near the border of\nColombia and Panama, moving quickly westward around 20 kt. No \nsignificant deep convection is occurring in association with this\nwave over water.\nA tropical wave has departed the NW Caribbean Sea, now over the\ncentral Yucatan Peninsula to the far eastern Pacific Ocean, and is\nhelping to enhance convection over portions of the peninsula to\nnear the coast of the NW Caribbean Sea.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends southwestward from 18N17W to 1008 mb \nlow pressure, Invest AL96, near 12.5N31W to 10.5N45W. The ITCZ\nextends from 10.5N45W to 13N60W. Other than the convection\ndescribed above with Invest AL96, no significant deep convection\nis present near the monsoon trough and ITCZ.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nIsolated to widely scattered showers prevail north of mainly 23N,\nwhile generally dry conditions are present in the remainder of \nthe Gulf waters, except in the Bay of Campeche where a weak\nsurface trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms. Weak ridging prevails across the remainder of the\nbasin at the surface supporting mainly gentle winds, to moderate \nin the Bay of Campeche and the Straits of Florida. Seas are slight\nacross the basin.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will persist across the\nGulf waters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or \nweaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally\nstrong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings\ndue to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula \neach night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for details on the \nGale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf\nof Venezuela.\nDivergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf of\nHonduras, Costa Rica and Panama nearshore waters. Dry conditions \nprevail elsewhere over water, while diurnal thunderstorm activity\nis over portions of Cuba and Hispaniola. Outside of the Gale \nWarning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate \nseas are noted elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 68W and 80W with\n6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail across\nthe remainder of the waters from 11N to 18N, with gentle to\nlocally moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are slight in the NW\nCaribbean, and moderate across the remainder of the waters.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will \nsupport fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas \nthrough the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force \ntonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, \nalong with locally very rough seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to \nlocally strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low \npressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic \nhas a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. \nThe system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the \nTropical N Atlantic this weekend. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nan area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a medium chance of\ntropical cyclone formation.\nDivergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N between 64W and 77W, and is\nalso enhancing diurnal activity over portions of the western\nBahamas and Florida Peninsula. A weak surface trough runs from\nnorth of the waters through 31N58W to 25N63W. Scattered showers\nand isolated thunderstorms are found within 90-120 nm either side\nof the trough. To the east, a cold front extends from the Iberian\nPeninsula to just northwest of the Canary Islands to 30N35W with\nno noticeable convective activity near the boundary. Fresh to\nstrong winds associated with Invest AL96 are found from 10N to 22N\nbetween 27W and 36W, with rough to very rough seas from 09N to 19N\nbetween 26W and 33W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north\nof the monsoon trough to 24N between 26W and 40W, with fresh\nnortherly winds funneling along the coast of Africa from 18N to\n26N to the east of 23W. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the\nremainder of the offshore and open waters. Mainly slight seas are\nwest of 70W, with mainly moderate seas across the remainder of the\nwaters, except also slight withing about 150 nm ahead/south of the\ncold front mentioned. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge, and \nassociated weak pressure gradient, will dominate the SW N Atlantic\nwaters over the next several days. This will support mainly \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will \npulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night.\nAn area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the \neastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over \nthe next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to\nportions of the southeast waters this weekend. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204933234997198851", "issued": "2026-07-26T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204933234997198851"}