{"msg": "399\nAXPZ20 KNHC 262124\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle is centered near 22.7N 124.9W at 26/2100\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft (5.5 m). \nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is confined to\nbetween 75 nm and 210 nm in the NE quadrant only. Iselle is \nmoving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is \nexpected to continue over the next few days. Steady weakening is \nexpected, and Iselle is forecast to become a post- tropical \nremnant low by tonight. Swells generated by Iselle will continue \nto affect the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula for a \ncouple more days. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. Please read the latest \nHIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the \nlatest Iselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCentral East Pacific (Invest EP93): A broad 1007 mb area of low \npressure located well south of southwestern Mexico near 09N107W \nis producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that \ncontinues to gradually become better organized. Scattered to \nnumerous moderate to strong convection is noted across an \nexpansive area on both sides of the monsoon trough, from 02N to \n15N between 77W and 117W. Environmental conditions are expected \nto support gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form during the next day or so while it \nmoves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of \nMexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone \nformation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest \nNHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.\nWestern East Pacific (Invest EP94): An elongated, 1009 mb broad \narea of low pressure located well to the east-southeast of the \nHawaiian Islands near 10.5N135W is producing disorganized showers\nand thunderstorms. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong\nconvection is noted within 600 nm in the SE semicircle and 150 nm\nin the NW semicircle of the low pressure center. Environmental \nconditions appear conducive for gradual development of this \nsystem, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this \nweek or early this weekend while the system drifts to the \nnortheast, then turns westward. This system has a medium chance \nof tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, and a \nhigh chance within the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest \nNHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is just east of the discussion waters\nbut approaching, along 77W, moving quickly westward around 20 \nkt. Any nearby convection is described above with Invest EP93.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 88.5W north of 05N to \nacross portions of El Salvador an the Yucatan Peninsula, moving \nwestward around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described above\nwith Invest EP93.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over\nnorthern Colombia near 10N74.5W to 08N88W to 10N100W to 1007 mb\nlow pressure, Invest EP93, near 09N107W to 14N118W, then resumes\nsoutheast of Tropical Storm Iselle at 16N119W to 1009 broad low \npressure, Invest EP94, near 10.5N135W to beyond 11N140W. Other \nthan the convection mentioned above, isolated to widely scattered\nmoderate to strong is noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon\ntrough between 119W and 128W.  \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on\nlow pressure Invest EP93 near 09N107W with the high chance for\ntropical cyclone formation.\nTropical Storm Iselle is well beyond the offshore waters of Baja\nCalifornia. Outer associated swells of 7 to 8 ft are impacting\nthe far Baja California Norte waters near the outer offshore \nboundary. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly gap winds continue\nto blow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas, except \nslight in the Gulf of California. Active showers and \nthunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of\nsouthern and southwestern Mexico as described with Invest EP93 in\nthe Special Features section above with locally higher winds and\nseas possible there.\nFor the forecast, the area of low pressure, Invest EP93, which \nhas a high chance for tropical cyclone formation, will move\nwest-northwest at 10 to 15 kt with the center forecast to stay\nbeyond the offshore waters. However, outer winds and seas are\nforecast to impact portions of the outer offshore waters of\nsouthwestern Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands late Thursday\nthrough at least Sun night. Meanwhile, outer rough swells \nassociated with Tropical Storm Iselle will continue to subside \nthrough tonight as the system continues to pull away from the \noffshore waters of Baja California while weakening. Fresh to \nstrong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at \ntimes. A surge of fresh to strong southeasterly winds likely \nassociated with convective complexes may move up the central and \nnorthern Gulf of California both Fri and Sat nights. Looking \nahead, another area of low pressure could form this weekend well\nto the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions \nappear favorable for some gradual development of this system, and\na tropical depression could form by early next week while it \nmoves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo\nwell downwind to near 10N93W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are\nmoderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate\nseas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern\nPanama. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the \nouter offshore waters areas from Colombia northward as described\nabove with Invest EP93 in the Special Features section, with \nlocally higher winds and seas possible there.\nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue \nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the Sat night, then\nmoderate to fresh thereafter, with associated moderate to fresh \nwinds extending well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El \nSalvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the \nmonsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be \nmoderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. \nConvection will remain active near the monsoon trough.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about \nTropical Storm Iselle, low pressure Invest EP93 with the high chance \nof tropical cyclone formation, and another broad area of low \npressure, Invest EP94 in the far west-central waters, also with \nthe potential for tropical cyclone formation. \nOtherwise, mainly moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon\ntrough hand west of 110W. South of the monsoon trough, mainly \nmoderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of the open \nwaters with very active convection present. Seas are mainly \nmoderate, except rough near and south of 03N between 115W and \n135W in southwesterly swell.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Iselle will become post-tropical\nand move to 23.2N 126.2W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low \nnear 23.9N 127.9W Thu afternoon, 24.6N 129.6W Fri morning, 25.3N \n131.1W Fri afternoon, and dissipate Sat morning. Other than the \ntwo remaining Special Features areas, Invest EP93 and Invest \nEP94, above, large southwesterly swell will impact the southern \nwaters through Thu night before decaying. Looking ahead, much \nlarger and more expansive southwesterly swell may impact the \nsouthern waters by early next week. Little change is forecast \nelsewhere away from the Special Features areas.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204909111343349763", "issued": "2026-08-26T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204909111343349763"}