{"msg": "276\nAXNT20 KNHC 261735\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1732 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES... \nEastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure,\nassociated with a tropical wave, is located a few hundred miles \nwest-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and \nthunderstorms associated with this system have changed little in \norganization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions\nare somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of \ndays, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or \ntwo as the system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 mph\nacross the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to become less conducive by this weekend, \npotentially ending its chances for development. Environmental \nconditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend, \npotentially ending its chances for development. Formation chance \nthrough 48 hours and 7 days is medium.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on\nthis feature.\nCaribbean Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea and lower \npressures in northern Colombia will support fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. \nWinds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Thu night off Colombia\nand in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas.\nPlease refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 21N, \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is \noccurring in association with this wave.\nA central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, south of 20N,\nmoving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are depicted\nover the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends southwestward from 17N16W to 09N33W to\n10N43W. The ITCZ continues from 10N43W to 11N57W. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to \n13N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted \nfrom 10N to 15N between 50W and 57W. \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered showers prevail north of 25.5N, while generally dry \nconditions are present in the remainder of the Gulf waters. A weak\nhigh pressure system over the NE Gulf maintains moderate or \nweaker winds and slight seas across much of the basin.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will persist across the\nGulf waters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or \nweaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally\nstrong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings\ndue to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula \neach night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for details on the Gale\nWarning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf of\nVenezuela.\nDivergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf of\nHonduras, Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. Dry conditions \nprevail elsewhere. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to \nstrong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted in the \nnorth- central and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and \nslight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will \nsupport fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas \nthrough the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force \ntonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, \nalong with locally very rough seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to \nlocally strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low \npressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic \nhas a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. \nThe system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the \nTropical N Atlantic this weekend. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nan area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a high chance of\ndevelopment.\nDivergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms west of 70W, affecting the Florida coast and NW\nBahamas. Farther east, a weak surface trough along 58W is \nproducing scattered showers between 56W and 60W and north of 23N.\nThe rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. \nModerate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are \nnoted east of 60W. Meanwhile, moderate or lighter winds and slight\nto moderate seas are found west of 60W. However, gusty winds and \nhigher seas are likely near the stronger storms.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge, and \nassociated weak pressure gradient, will dominate the SW N Atlantic\nwaters through the next several days. This will support mainly \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will \npulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night.\nAn area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the \neastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over \nthe next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to\nportions of the southeast waters this weekend. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204864013360398339", "issued": "2026-08-26T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204864013360398339"}