{"msg": "161\nAXPZ20 KNHC 261523\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1440 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle is centered near 22.2N 124.0W at 26/1500\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 21 ft (6.5 m).\nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is confined to \nwithin in the NE quadrant. Iselle is moving toward the west- \nnorthwest and this general motion is expected to continue over \nthe next few days. Steady weakening is expected, and Iselle is \nforecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by tonight. Swells\ngenerated by Iselle will continue to affect the west coast of \nthe Baja California Peninsula for a couple more days. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nIselle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nCentral East Pacific (Invest EP93): A broad area of 1007 mb low \npressure located well south of southwestern Mexico near 09N107W \nis producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and is \ngradually becoming better organized. Scattered to numerous \nmoderate to strong convection spans a large area including well \naway from the system along the monsoon trough from 02N to 15N \nbetween 88W and 117W. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25 kt \nwith seas of 7 to 9 ft at most. Environmental conditions are \nexpected to support gradual development of this system, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so \nwhile it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore \nof Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone \nformation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest \nNHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.\nWestern East Pacific: An elongated, broad area of low pressure \nlocated well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands in the\nvicinity of 11.5N135W is producing disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for \ngradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form late this week or early this weekend while the \nsystem drifts to the northeast, then turns westward. This system\nhas a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the \nnext 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwebsite: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more \ndetails.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 87.5W north of 05N to across\nportions of eastern El Salvador and along the Caribbean coast of\nthe Yucatan Peninsula, moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Any\nnearby convection is described above and below.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure near the\nnorthern coast of Colombia in the SW Caribbean Sea at 10.5N76W to\n10N88W to low pressure, Invest EP93, near 09N107W to 15N116W,\nthen resumes south of Tropical Iselle from 13.5N55W to beyond\n10N140W. Other than the convection mentioned above, isolated to\nwidely scattered moderate to strong is noted from 02N to 10N\nbetween 77W and 88W, and within 360 nm south-southwest of the\nmonsoon trough between 118W and 140W. Similar convection is\nwithin 150 nm north of the monsoon trough between 135W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on\nlow pressure Invest EP93 near 09N107W with the high chance for\ntropical cyclone formation.\nTropical Storm Iselle is well beyond the offshore waters of Baja\nCalifornia. Outer associated swells of 7 to 9 ft are impacting\nthe Baja California waters near the outer offshore boundary.\nMeanwhile, fresh to strong northerly gap winds continue to blow\nin the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. Winds are moderate\nor weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas, except slight in\nthe Gulf of California. Active showers and thunderstorms are\npresent over the outer offshore waters areas of southern and\nsouthwestern Mexico as described above with locally higher winds\nand seas possible there.\nFor the forecast, the area of low pressure, Invest EP93, which \nhas a high chance for tropical cyclone formation, will move\nwest-northwest at 10 to 15 kt with the center forecast to stay\nbeyond the offshore waters. However, outer winds and seas are\nforecast to impact portions of the outer offshore waters of\nsouthwestern Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands late Thursday\nthrough at least Sat night. Meanwhile, outer rough swells\nassociated with Tropical Storm Iselle will subside through\ntonight as the system continues to pull away from the offshore\nwaters of Baja California while weakening. Fresh to strong\nnortherly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec through the next several days with locally rough seas\nthere at times. A surge of fresh to strong southeasterly winds\nlikely associated with convective complexes may move up the\ncentral and northern Gulf of California both Fri and Sat nights.\nLooking ahead, another area of low pressure could form this \nweekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo\nwell downwind to near 10N92W with 5 to 7 ft seas. Winds are\nmoderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate\nseas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern\nPanama. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the \nouter offshore waters areas from Colombia northward as described\nabove with locally higher winds and seas possible there.\nFor the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue \nto pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend, \nwith associated moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind to \nthe outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly \nwinds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend. Winds \nwill be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. \nConvection will remain active near the monsoon trough.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about \nTropical Storm Iselle, low pressure Invest EP93 with the high chance \nof tropical cyclone formation, and another broad area of low \npressure in the far west-central waters with the potential for \ntropical cyclone formation. \nOtherwise, mainly moderate winds prevail north of 12N. South of \n12N mainly moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across much of\nthe open waters with very active convection present. Seas are\nmainly moderate, except rough near and south of the Equator\nbetween 115W and 135W.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Iselle will become post-tropical \nand move to 22.5N 125.3W this evening, weaken to a remnant low near \n23.2N 127.0W Thu morning, 23.9N 128.8W Thu evening, 24.5N 130.7W Fri \nmorning, 25.0N 132.4W Fri evening, and dissipate Sat morning. Other \nthan the two remaining Special Features areas above, large \nsouthwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through Thu \nnight before decaying. Looking ahead, much larger southwesterly \nswell may impact the southern waters by early next week. Little \nchange is forecast elsewhere away from the Special Features areas.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204838196030898179", "issued": "2026-08-26T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204838196030898179"}