{"msg": "842\nAXNT20 KNHC 261018\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0955 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES... \nEastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure\nassociated with a tropical wave, located a few hundred miles \nsouth-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing showers \nand thunderstorms that are displaced to the southwest of its \ncenter. Environmental conditions remain somewhat favorable for \ndevelopment over the next couple of days, and a tropical \ndepression is likely to form over the next day or two as the \nsystem moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and\ncentral tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast \nto become less favorable by this weekend, potentially ending its \nchances for development. Formation chance through 48 hours and 7\ndays is high.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on\nthis feature.\nCaribbean Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the \nsubtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea and lower \npressures in northern Colombia will support fresh to strong \neasterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. \nWinds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Thu night off Colombia\nand in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas.\nPlease refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 21N, \nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is\noccurring in association with this wave.\nA central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N,\nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is observed with \nthis wave.\nFor information on the tropical wave previously described in the\nwestern Caribbean, please read the Eastern Pacific Tropical \nWeather Discussion.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 21N16W \nto 13N43W. The ITCZ continues from 13N43W to 11N55W. Scattered\nmoderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to\n18N and east of 19W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA few showers are noted in the Florida Straits, while generally\ndry conditions are present in the remainder of the Gulf waters. A\nweak high pressure system over the central Gulf maintains moderate\nor weaker winds and slight seas across much of the basin.\nFor the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will persist across the Gulf\nwaters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker\nwinds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong\nwith moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due \nto a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each \nnight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may increase\nacross the northern Gulf waters late this week into the weekend as\nan upper level trough passes to the north. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for details on the Gale\nWarning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf of\nVenezuela.\nDivergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the NW\nCaribbean and off Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Dry conditions\nprevail elsewhere. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to\nstrong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted in the\nnorth-central and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and\nslight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical\nridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern\nColombia will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and\nrough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-\nforce tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of\nVenezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Meanwhile, winds \nwill pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at\nnight. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, \ncurrently located in the eastern Atlantic, has a high chance of \ntropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring \nincreasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic \nthis weekend. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nan area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a high chance of\ndevelopment.\nDivergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms west of 75W, affecting the Florida coast and NW\nBahamas. Farther east, a weak surface trough along 59W is\nproducing scattered showers between 55W and 60W and north of 24N.\nThe rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge.\nModerate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are\nnoted east of 60W. Meanwhile, moderate or lighter winds and slight\nto moderate seas are found west of 60W. However, gusty winds and\nhigher seas are likely near the stronger storms.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, an elongated trough extending from\nnorth of the area southward to 27N along 59W will continue to \nsupport scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through \ntoday. The subtropical ridge will dominate the remainder of the SW\nN Atlantic waters through the next several days, supporting \nmainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds\nwill pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at \nnight. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, \ncurrently located in the eastern Atlantic, has a high chance of \ntropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring \nincreasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters this\nweekend.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204778124777619459", "issued": "2026-08-26T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204778124777619459"}