{"id": "1204758400691109891", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-26T09:00:00Z", "msg": "995\nWTPZ44 KNHC 260838\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026\n200 AM PDT Wed Aug 26 2026\n \nModerate northerly wind shear and dry air entrainment are affecting \nIselle this morning. An earlier GPM microwave pass indicated that \nthe circulation is better established to the north and east of the \ncenter, with less definition on the southern and western sides. This \nstructure is consistent with infrared satellite imagery, which shows \nshower and thunderstorm activity concentrated primarily northeast of \nthe center. However, a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated \nthat winds of 40-45 kt remain present in the northeastern quadrant. \nThe 0600 UTC Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 3.0/45 kt, \nwhile objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 26-44 \nkt. Given the scatterometer data and subjective Dvorak estimate, \nthe intensity is set at 45 kt for this advisory. \n\nIselle will continue on a west-northwestward heading over the next \ncouple of days as a ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. \nIncreasing wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures and drier \nmid-level air will promote gradual weakening through late this week, \nand Iselle may struggle to maintain organized convection as early as \ntonight. The latest NHC forecast calls for Iselle to become \npost-tropical by 24 h and degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h. Only \nminor adjustments were made to the track and intensity forecasts for \nthis advisory cycle. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0900Z 21.8N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 22.8N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  27/1800Z 23.5N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/0600Z 23.8N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  28/1800Z 24.3N 132.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}