{"msg": "573\nAXPZ20 KNHC 260405\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0350 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle is centered near 21.3N 122.5W at 26/0300\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with\ngusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 26 ft. Convection\nfrom Iselle is sheared to the NE quadrant and extends from 22N to\n27N between 117W and 123W. Iselle is moving toward the west-\nnorthwest near 9 kt, and this general motion is expected for the\nnext couple of days, with a turn towards the west possible late \non Wednesday. Weakening is forecast, and Iselle could become a \npost-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Swells generated by Iselle \nare affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula, \nand will continue for a couple more days. These swells are likely\nto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office.\n \nA broad area of low pressure of 1007 mb (Invest EP93), formerly \nassociated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of\nsouthwestern Mexico near 09N106W and is producing a large area \nof showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate to strong \nconvection is ongoing from 03N to 15N between 91W and 115W. This \nsystem is gradually becoming better organized, and environmental \nconditions appear favorable for continued development. A tropical\ndepression is expected to form in the next two or three days \nwhile it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well\noffshore of Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone\ndevelopment within the next 2 days and a high chance within 7 \ndays.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC\nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on these two systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 110W, from 06N to 20N, moving westward \nat 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 05N to 15.5N between 99W and 112W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08.5N97W to 08.5N102W\nto 13N112W, then resumes SW of Julio from 14N121W to low pres \nnear 10N140W 1008 mb. Aside from the convection related to the \ntropical waves, T.S. Julio and T.S. Iselle described above, \nscattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted \nfrom 03.5N to 08.5N E of 91W and from 06N to 13N between 90W and\n99W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 07N to 12N between 120W and 128W, and \nfrom 03.5N to 12N between 128W and 143W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout T.S. Iselle and Invest EP93. \nTropical Storm Iselle is near 21.3N 122.5W at 8 PM PDT, and is\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt\nwith gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb.\nThe proximity of Iselle continues to disrupt the ridge to its \nnorth, and into the Baja offshore waters. This is maintaining \nlight to gentle winds across the Baja California waters and the \nSW Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in S-SW swell \nfrom Iselle across the outer Baja Sur offshotre waters, and\nslight to moderate elsewhere, except in the Gulf of California\nwhere light winds maintain slight seas. Otherwise, fresh to \nstrong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nand downwind to about 14N with 6 to 8 ft seas.\nFor the forecast, Iselle will move to 21.6N 123.7W Wed morning, \n22.3N 125.5W Wed evening, weaken to a remnant low near 22.9N \n127.4W Thu morning, 23.4N 129.4W Thu evening, 23.8N 131.4W Fri \nmorning, and dissipate Fri evening. Large S-SW swell from Iselle\nwill continue to move through the Baja waters through early Wed \nbefore quickly subsiding. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds \nwill continue to pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region\nduring the overnight and early morning hours through the \nupcoming weekend, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. \nLooking ahead, Invest EP93 has the potential to develop into a \ntropical depression in the next two or three days while it moves\ngenerally WNW at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of Mexico. This\nsystem will likely follow a similar trajectory as Iselle, Thu \nthrough the weekend, and impact the outer offshore waters near \nthe Revillagigedo Islands within increasing winds and seas.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds continue across the \nPapagayo region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 9 \nft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas \nare S of 04N and between the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with slight to \nmoderate seas in SW swell.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds will \npulse to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each night \nthrough Sat night building seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to \nfresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the \nouter offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the \nend of the week. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally\nfresh S winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue \nnight and then prevail through the remainder forecast period. \nOtherwise, cross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area \nwaters Thu night through Fri. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about\nT.S. Iselle and Invest EP93. \nHigh pressure of 1020 mb located near 35N129W extends a broad \nridge south and southeastward to approximately 118W, and drapes \nacross Iselle. The pressure gradient between these features and \nlow pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting \nmoderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 25N and W of \n125W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are south of the monsoon W\nof 130W while moderate to fresh E winds accompany the Invest\nEP93. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate.\nFor the forecast, a weak and small area of low pressure located \nwell to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing \nsome disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental \nconditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form late this week or early \nthis weekend while the system drifts northeastward, then turns to\nthe west-northwest. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium\nand high through 7 days. \nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure could form this weekend \nwell south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions should \nsupport some gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression could form by early next week while it moves westward \nto west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Formation chance through \n48 hours is low and medium through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204704877778042883", "issued": "2026-08-26T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204704877778042883"}