{"id": "1204686532444782595", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-26T03:00:00Z", "msg": "457\nWTPZ44 KNHC 260232\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026\n800 PM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that Iselle continues to be sheared and \nthat the low-level circulation is becoming more detached from the \nmid-level center. As such, the deep convection is still located away \nfrom the center of the storm, which is a strong indication that the \ncyclone is continuing to weaken. Water Vapor imagery also shows that \ndry air is intruding far into the core of the cyclone as well. While \nthe most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was \nat CI 3.5/55 kt, the objective UW-CMISS estimates are lower and \nrange from 33-45 kt. Thus, based on the available data, the initial \nintensity has been set to 45 kt for this advisory.\n \nFurther weakening is anticipated due to continued shear, \nprogressively cooler water and increasing dry air entrainment near \nthe core of the cyclone. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite \nimagery show the cyclone becoming devoid of organized deep \nconvection in 24 to 36 h. Given the current appearance of the \nstorm, it is possible that Iselle could become a post-tropical \nremnant low sooner and dissipate faster than indicated in the \nforecast. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the \nprevious one, with minor adjustments towards the end of the \nforecast period. \n\nTrends from the most recent satellite fixes show that the Iselle \ncontinues to move to the west-northwest around 7 kt. A ridge from \nthe southern United States is expected to extend westward and should \nkeep the system moving towards the west-northwest. As the storm \nweakens, it should turn more westward due to the low-level flow \nsteering the shallow cyclone. The current NHC track is very similiar \nto the previous track, with only slight adjustments to the previous \nforecast.  \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/0300Z 21.3N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 21.6N 123.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 22.9N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/0000Z 23.4N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  28/1200Z 23.8N 131.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}