{"msg": "091\nAXNT20 KNHC 252344 CCA\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES... \nEastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1008 mb area of low \npressure is near 12N23.5W, a few hundred miles south of the Cabo \nVerde Islands, and is producing scattered moderate isolated \nstrong convection from 08.5N 14N between 24W and 29W. Peak winds \nare near 25 kt with seas to 7 ft in the vicinity of the low. \nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,\nand this system is likely to become a tropical depression during \nthe next day or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward \nacross the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental \nconditions could become less conducive for development by the \nweekend. Formation chance through 48 hours is high.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on\nthis feature.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W from 06N-21N,\nmoving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated \nstrong convection is occurring from 08.5N 14N between 24W and 29W.\nThis system is Invest AL96, which is discussed in detail above.\nAn Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W south of 17N, moving \nwestward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring\nin association with this wave.\nA Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W south of 20N, moving \nwestward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently occurring with\nthis wave.\nA western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N \nto Cost Rica, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate \nand isolated strong convection is occurring south of 17N between\n80W and 87W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection\nis across the Eastern Tropical Pacific from 04N to 09N E of 90W.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near\n19N16W to the 1008 mb low at 12N23.5W, then westward to 13N41W to\n12N47W. The ITCZ begins at 12N47W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring from 08N-13N between 31W-40W and from \n11N-14N between 40W-51W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nNortherly middle level winds across the northern Gulf coast\ncontinue to push scattered moderate isolated strong convection\nacross northern portions of the Gulf, southward to the area from\n25N to 29N between 85W and 93W. The most intense convection there\nis occurring across SE Louisiana and the adjacent coastal waters.\nA weak 1018 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N94W, \ncontributing toward moderate or weaker winds with seas 1-3 ft \nthis afternoon. A surface trough extends from a frontal system in\ncentral Georgia, southwestward through the central Florida\nPanhandle to 25N88W, while a second trough is across the central\nBay of Campeche. Modest convection accompanies both of these\ntroughs. \nFor the forecast, weak and broad high pressure will dominate the \nbasin through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming \nweekend with mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. \nWinds may pulse to moderate to fresh with locally moderate seas \noffshore of the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due \nto a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each \nnight.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between the 1020 mb Bermuda High near \n29N67W and the 1006 mb Colombian Low is forcing an expanding area\nof fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean, from south\nof Jamaica and Hispaniola to South America, where seas are 6 to 9\nft, and to 10 ft along the NE coast of Colombia. Elsewhere winds \nare moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate \nisolated strong convection is occurring south of 17N west of 80W.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin will\nsupport fresh to strong winds south of 18N through the next \nseveral days, along with rough seas. Winds will pulse to minimal \ngale force in the Gulf of Venezuela and off northern Colombia \nduring the next couple of evenings with locally very rough seas. \nMainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will dominate \nthe eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds and slight to\nmoderate seas in the NW Caribbean. Winds will pulse to fresh near\nthe Windward Passage. Looking ahead, low pressure, Invest AL96, \nin the eastern Atlantic, has the potential to develop into a \ntropical cyclone and bring increasing winds and seas to portions \nof the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nlow pressure, Invest AL96, and the tropical wave that emerged off\nthe coast of Africa yesterday.\nA 1029 mb Azores High is centered north of our waters a 41N40W. \nThe pressure gradient between the northward-displaced high and \nlower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is only forcing \nmoderate trades across the Tropical Atlantic west of 35W, with \nseas 4-7 ft. A middle Atlantic upper-level trough north of the \nGreater Antilles along about 60W is forcing scattered moderate \nand isolated strong convection north of 21N between 57W-62W. \nEast of 35W, a cold front is approaching the area from the north,\nalong 31N, and has squashed the ridge that has dominated that area\nin recent days. Winds extending from the Canary Islands to north\nof the Cabo Verdes are only moderate to fresh N of 16N and E of\n35W, with seas of 5-8 ft.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, an elongated deep layered trough \nfrom north of the area southward along about 61W will continue to \nsupport showers and thunderstorms over the waters north of 20N\nbetween 55W and 61W through at Thu. Moderate high pressure \ndominates the remainder of the waters with mainly moderate or \nweaker winds and slight to moderate seas north of 23N through the \nremainder of the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail \nsouth of 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the \nnorthern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far \nsouthern waters into the weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure, \nInvest AL96, in the eastern Atlantic has the potential to develop \ninto a tropical cyclone and bring increasing winds and seas to \nportions of the southeast waters by late Sat into Sun.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204653511718141955", "issued": "2026-08-25T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204653511718141955"}