{"msg": "346\nAXPZ20 KNHC 252202\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle is centered near 21.0N 121.8W at 2100 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with \ngusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 28 ft. Numerous \nmoderate isolated strong convection is noted from 21.5N to 24.5N\nbetween 119W and 122W, while scattered moderate convection \nextends elsewhere from 20N to 25N between 118W and 122W. This \ncurrent west- northwest motion is expected to continue through\nWed, while Iselle gradually weakens due to continued westerly \nupper level wind shear and cooler SSTs. Iselle is forecast to \nbecome a post- tropical remnant low by Thu. S-SW swell generated\nby Iselle is affecting the offshore waters and west coast of the\nBaja California Peninsula, and will continue through Wed morning\nbefore subsiding quickly. These swells are likely to cause large\nand powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office. \n \nThe remnants of Tropical Storm Julio are centered near 21.0N\n119.5W at 2100 UTC, moving north at 22 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40\nkt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 16 ft within \n120 nm across the E semicircle. Numerous moderate isolated  \nstrong convection is noted in a narrow band from 13N to 20.5N \nbetween 117.5W and 122W, to the south of the remnants of Julio.\nThis system is exposed to the north of the area of strong \nconvection, and no longer has a closed cyclonic circulation, and \nthus is no longer a tropical cyclone. Recent satellite \nscatterometer data showed winds to 40 kt across the eastern\nsemicircle of the remnant low of Julio. A Gale Warning is now in\neffect for this area of winds through this evening, before the\nremnants become absorbed within the outer eastern circulation of\nIselle this evening through tonight.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC\nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on these two systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 110W, from 06N to 20N, moving westward \nat 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 05N to 15.5N between 99W and 112W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08.5N97W to 08.5N102W\nto 13N112W, then resumes SW of Julio from 14N121W to low pres \nnear 10N140W 1008 mb. Aside from the convection related to the \ntropical waves, T.S. Julio and T.S. Iselle described above, \nscattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted \nfrom 03.5N to 08.5N E of 91W and from 06N to 13N between 90W and\n99W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 07N to 12N between 120W and 128W, and \nfrom 03.5N to 12N between 128W and 143W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout T.S. Iselle. \nTropical Storm Iselle continues to move away from the Mexican \noffshore waters, located near 21.0N 121.8W at 2 PM PDT, moving \nwest- northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with \ngusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The\nremnants of former Tropical Storm Julio are racing northward and\ngradually merging into the easten side of Iselle, located near\n21.0N 119.5W at 2 PM PDT. Winds to 40 kt are within 80 nm across\nthe eastern semicircle and gradually shifting away from the\nRevillagigedo Islands this afternoon. The proximity of Iselle \ncontinues to disrupt the ridge to its north, and into the Baja \noffshore waters. This is maintaining light to gentle winds \nacross the Baja California waters and mostly NE to E winds \nacross the SW Mexican offshore waters W of Puerto Angel. Seas \nare 7 to 13 ft in S-SW swell from Iselle across the Baja Sur \nwaters, and 5 to 8 ft in building S-SW swell across the Baja \nNorte waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft elsewhere across the remainder \nof the Mexican offshore waters. Winds and seas are gradually \ndiminishing across the Revillagigedo Islands and area waters as \nIselle gradually moves away from that area, as seas are subsiding\nto 7 to 10 ft there. Light and variable winds generally dominate\nthe Gulf of California. A large cluster of strong thunderstorms \novers the entrance to the Gulf, supported by an upper level low \npressure system, has shifted northwestward into the southern Gulf\nand across Baja Sur in recent hours, and diminished considerably. \nOtherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the \nGulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N with 6 to 8 ft \nseas.\nFor the forecast, Iselle will continue to move west-northwestward\nand away from the area waters, while gradually weakening,\nreaching near 21.3N 123.0W tonight, and near 21.8N 124.7W midday\nWed. Large S-SW swell from Iselle will continue to move through \nthe Baja waters through early Wed before quickly subsiding. \nElsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to \nstrong speeds across Tehuantepec region during the overnight and \nearly morning hours through the upcoming weekend, with seas \noccasionally building to 8 ft. Looking ahead, another tropical \nwave and developing low pressure area will follow a similar \ntrajectory as Iselle, Thu through the weekend, and impact the \nouter offshore waters near the Revillagigedo Islands within \nincreasing winds and seas. A tropical depression could form \nlate this weekend or early next week while it moves westward to \nwest-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern \nMexico.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds continue across the \nPapagayo region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 \nft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas \nare S of 04N and between the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. \nModerate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with slight to \nmoderate seas in SW swell. Scattered to numerous moderate to \nstrong thunderstorms have intensified across the eastern waters,  \nfrom 04N to 09.5N between Colombia and 90W, including the \nentrance to the Gulf of Panama, and nearshore waters of western \nPanama, and Cost Rica.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds will \npulse to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each night \nthrough Sat night building seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to \nfresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the \nouter offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the \nend of the week. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally\nfresh S winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue \nnight and then prevail through the remainder forecast period. \nOtherwise, cross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area \nwaters Thu night through Fri. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about\nT.S. Iselle and the remnants of T.S. Julio. \nHigh pressure of 1021 mb located near 35N129W extends a broad \nridge south and southeastward to approximately 118W, and drapes \nacross Iselle. The pressure gradient between these features and \nlow pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting \nmoderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 25N and W of \n125W per recent satellite scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh \nSW to W winds are south of the monsoon W of 130W while moderate \nto fresh E winds accompany the tropical wave near 110W. South of\nthe monsoon trough and between 116W and 125W, fresh S-SW winds \nare feeding into Julio and the eastern side of Iselle. Elsewhere,\nwinds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate.\nFor the forecast, the remnants of Julio will move northward and \ngradually become absorbed in the larger circulation of Iselle\nthis evening, while Iselle shifts west-northwestward between 20N\nand 25N tonight through Wed before dissipating Thu. A tropical \nwave located near 110W, well to the SW of SW Mexico, is \nproducing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for development of \nthis system, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the\nend of the week while it moves generally west- northwestward at \n10 to 15 kt, well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low \nchance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two days \nand high chance of development through 7 days.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore \nof Central America late this week or this weekend. Environmental \nconditions should support some gradual development of this \nsystem, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or\nearly next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at\n10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a\nlow chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two \ndays and a medium chance of development through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204633501886054403", "issued": "2026-08-25T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204633501886054403"}