{"id": "1204617600339771395", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-25T21:00:00Z", "msg": "928\nWTPZ44 KNHC 252041\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026\n200 PM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026\n\nThe structure of Iselle has significantly degraded during the past \nseveral hours, with the low-level circulation further detaching \nfrom the mid-level center located well to the northeast.  This \nchange has caused any deep convection to be located well away from \nthe center near the old mid-level center and is representative of \na weakening cyclone.  A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed peak \nwinds of about 45 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 50 kt, \nconsistent with the low bias of the instrument.\n\nFurther weakening is anticipated due to continued shear, \nprogressively cooler water and dry air entrainment near the core of \nthe cyclone.  Perhaps because of the poor initial structure, \nIselle isn't expected to be a particularly resilient cyclone, and \nno model shows organized deep convection beyond 36 hours.  The new \nNHC intensity forecast is lower than the last one, keeping the same \ngeneral rate of weakening, but it shows a much earlier transition \ninto a remnant low.\n \nSatellite fixes show that the storm continues to move to the \nwest-northwest, and little change in track is anticipated for the \nnext couple of days due to ridging extending from the southern \nUnited States.  As the storm weakens, it should turn more westward \nby Thursday due to the cyclone becoming steered more by the \nlow-level flow.  The guidance is shifting southward, consistent \nwith a decaying system, so the new forecast is shifted equatorward, \nclosest to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/2100Z 21.0N 121.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 21.3N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 21.8N 124.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 22.4N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  27/1800Z 23.0N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  28/0600Z 23.5N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}