{"id": "1204615830744465411", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-25T21:00:00Z", "msg": "791\nWTPA42 PHFO 252032\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  54\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Tue Aug 25 2026\n\nDeep convection associated with Lala has decreased a bit in \ncoverage over the past few hours.  Whereas this may be temporary, \nit is more likely a response to cooler waters.  The system \ncontinues to exhibit a ragged eye-like feature and remains fairly \nwell organized.  The intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory \nwhich is the same as a Dvorak Current Intensity Number from the \nJoint Typhoon Warning Center.  Dvorak Final T-Numbers have \ndecreased however.  Data from an upcoming scatterometer overpass \nshould provide a good intensity estimate.\n\nLala continues moving west-northwestward, with an initial motion \nestimate of 300/5 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the \ncyclone should steer the system on a west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward track for the next few days.  Since Lala is likely to \nremain fairly well removed from the faster southwesterly flow at \nhigher latitudes for the next 72 hours, it is likely to continue \nmoving rather slowly until late in the forecast period.  Not much \nchange is made to the official track forecast for this advisory \ncycle.  The official forecast remains close to the corrected model \nconsensus, HCCA, solution.\n\nThe cyclone is likely to remain over relatively cooler waters of \naround 23 deg C or so and within a fairly dry low- to mid-level air \nmass during the forecast period.  Therefore, gradual weakening is \nexpected and Lala will probably degenerate into a post-tropical \ncyclone within 60 hours, or sooner.  This is consistent with the \nlatest simulated IR imagery from the ECMWF which shows most of the \nsystem's deep convection dissipating by that time.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/2100Z 35.0N 177.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 35.3N 177.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 35.8N 178.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 36.5N 179.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 37.3N 179.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  28/0600Z 38.0N 179.4E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1800Z 38.4N 178.2E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1800Z 41.7N 174.7E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1800Z 48.5N 177.0E   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}