{"msg": "467\nAXNT20 KNHC 251546\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1430 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES... \nEastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure\nof 1009 mb is at 12N23W a few hundred miles south-southeast of \nthe Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and \nthunderstorms. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection \nis occurring from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. Peak winds are near 25 \nkt and seas to 7 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for\ngradual development, and this system is likely to become a \ntropical depression during the next day or two while it moves \nwestward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central \ntropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less \nconducive for development by the weekend. Formation chance through\n48 hours is high.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on\nthis feature.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 06N-21N,\nmoving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated \nstrong convection is occurring from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. This \nsystem is Invest AL96, which is discussed in detail above.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W south of \n17N moving westward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection\nis occurring in association with this wave.\nAn eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W south of 20N.\nIt is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently \noccurring with this wave.\nA western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W south of 20N \nto Panama moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and\nisolated strong convection is occurring south of 16N west of 80W.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near\n19N16W to the 1009 mb low at 12N23W, then westward to 11N41W. The\nITCZ begins at 11N41W to 10N49W, where it breaks for an tropical\nwave, then begins again at 10N51W to coastal Guyana at 08N59W. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring \nfrom 09N-14N between 21W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is\noccurring from 08N-12N between 29W-38W and from 08N-11N west of\n55W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA weak 1017 mb high is centered over the central Gulf near 24N87W\ncontributing toward moderate or weaker winds with seas 1-4 ft this\nmorning. A 1015 mb at 30N86W along a trough extending from 30N86W\nto 28N87W is accompanied by scattered moderate convection north \nof 28N east of 90W.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over \nthe central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge \nremaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain \ngentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend.\nA surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west\nof the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the \nperiod. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the\narea and the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong\ntrades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere\nwinds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate\nand isolated strong convection is occurring south of 16N west of \n80W.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high\npressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America\nwill continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant\nrough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the rest of\nthe week and into the weekend. Winds may be near gale-force in the\nGulf of Venezuela at night starting tonight, and northwest of\nColombia at night starting Wed night. Elsewhere, mainly moderate \nto fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light \nto gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds\nwill pulse at times through the week following passages several \ntropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long \nperiod northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure \nsystem, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to \nimpacts to the far eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic \nzone starting Sat. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nlow pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off \nthe coast of Africa yesterday.\nA 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High is centered north of our waters a\n42N41W. The pressure gradient between the northward-displaced high\nand lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is only\nforcing gentle to moderate trades with seas 3-7 ft. An upper-level\ntrough north of the Greater Antilles is forcing scattered moderate\nand isolated strong convection north of 22N between 54W-61W. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, an elongated trough from north of \nthe area to 29N63W will support showers and thunderstorms over the\nwaters north of 22N and east of 61W through at least tonight. \nHigh pressure dominates the remainder of the waters with mainly \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas north of 23N \nthrough the remainder of the week. Moderate to at times fresh \ntrades, will prevail south of 23N, with slightly higher winds \npulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most \nwestward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Long \nperiod northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure \nsystem, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to \nimpact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204559463382614019", "issued": "2026-08-25T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204559463382614019"}