{"id": "1204547314963611651", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-25T15:00:00Z", "msg": "200\nWTPZ44 KNHC 251444\nTCDEP4\n \nTropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092026\n800 AM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026\n\nIselle continues to produce a large area of deep convection near \nand well northeast of the center.  A GCOM-AMSR2 microwave \npass from a few hours ago showed that the system is on the edge of \nthe convective mass, and the low-level center is displaced to the \nsouthwest of the mid-level circulation.  Satellite estimates support \nkeeping Iselle a 60-kt tropical storm for this advisory.  Gradual \nweakening is anticipated during the next few days due to persistent \nwesterly shear, cooling waters and a dry mid-level atmosphere. \nIselle should lose all deep convection in about 2 days due to a\nhostile environment, and post-tropical status is anticipated after \nthat time.  Model guidance is in very good agreement on the slow \ndecay, and no significant changes were made to the last NHC \nforecast.\n\nMicrowave fixes indicate that Iselle has turned, and is now moving \nwest-northwestward at about 9 kt.  This general heading should \ncontinue for the next couple of days due to ridging extending from \nthe southern United States.  As the storm weakens, it should turn \nmore westward by day 3 due to the cyclone becoming steered more by \nthe low-level flow.  There has been a modest leftward shift in the \nguidance, consistent with a weakening system, so the new forecast is \nshifted to the left, lying between the NOAA corrected-consensus \nmodel HCCA and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/1500Z 20.9N 121.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 21.4N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 22.0N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 22.7N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 23.3N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  28/0000Z 23.8N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1200Z 24.2N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}