{"msg": "909\nAXNT20 KNHC 251105\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1045 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES... \nEastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and \nassociated area of low pressure is analyzed over the far eastern \nAtlantic a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde \nislands. THe wave extends along 20W/21W and S of 20N, with a\n1010 mb low centered along the wave axis near 11N21W. Disorganized\nscattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from\n07N to 12N between 17W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear\nconducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to \nbecome a tropical depression during the next few days while it \nmoves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and \ncentral tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become \nless conducive for development by the weekend. This system\nhas a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through \nthe next 7 days.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on\nthis feature.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of \n20N moving westward around 15 kt. Convection as described below\nunder Monsoon Trough/ITCZ.\nAn eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W south of 21N.\nIt is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently\noccurring with this wave.\nA central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W south of 21N \nto northern Colombia moving westward around 10 kt. No convection \nis presently noted with this wave.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W and \nwestward to 12.5N35W to 11N40W and to 09N48W, where it transitions \nto the ITCZ to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between\n43W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north\nof the trough between 47W-50W, and within 30 nm of the trough \nbetween 38W-43W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the \ncentral Gulf near 25N89W, and is generally producing light to \ngentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE \nwinds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less \nprevail over the basin per buoy observations and recent satellite \naltimeter satellite data passes.\nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over \nthe central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge \nremaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain \ngentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend.\nA surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west\nof the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the \nperiod. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western\nAtlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America \ncontinues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the \ncentral Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of\nnorthwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone \nof strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and \nfar NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. \nModerate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N \nto 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas \nelsewhere.\nScattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is\nconfined to south of 15N west of 80W, including some of the \ninland sections of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms \nare elsewhere south of 18N west of 77W.\nFor the forecast, the current synoptic pattern across the region \nwill continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant \nrough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the \nrest of the week and into the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to \nfresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to \ngentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds \nwill pulse at times through the week following passages several \ntropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long \nperiod northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure \nsystem, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far \neastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic zone starting Sat.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nlow pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off \nthe coast of Africa yesterday.\nLow pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is north of the area near\n35N60W. Its associated trough extends from the low to 31N61W and to \nnear 24N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and \nfresh to strong south winds persist to the E of the trough N of 24N \nbetween 55W and 58W. In the eastern Atlantic, another weak surface \ntrough is analyzed from near 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection is \nactive with this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging \nprevails. A 1019 mb high center is over the western Atlantic at \n29N69W. To the south of this feature, fresh east to southeast winds \nare over the waters from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos \nIslands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and \nslight to moderate seas remain elsewhere north of 20N and west of \n61W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon \ntrough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas as noted \nin overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Winds are mainly \nmoderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong \nsouth winds and the convective activity N of 24N between 55W and\n58W will slowly diminish through early this evening as Invest AL95\nmoves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate \nto at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with \nslightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of \ntropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into \nthe weekend. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching \nlow pressure system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, \nmay begin to impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204504184399233027", "issued": "2026-08-25T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204504184399233027"}