{"msg": "316\nAXPZ20 KNHC 250927\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0920 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Iselle is centered near 20.7N 119.9W at 25/0900\nUTC, moving northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 30 ft. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted from 19N to 24N between \n113W and 122W, while scattered moderate convection extends \nelsewhere from 16N to 19N between 113W and 119W. A turn toward \nthe west-northwest and a slower forward speed is expected later \ntoday. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and \nIselle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by early \nFriday. Swells generated by Iselle are affecting the west coast \nof the Baja California Peninsula, and will continue for a couple \nmore days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office. \n \nFormer Tropical Depression Ten-E has become Tropical Storm Julio. \nTropical Storm Julio is centered near 15.7N 119.8W at 25/0900\nUTC, moving north-northeast at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft within 105 nm SE quadrant.\nNumerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N \nbetween 116W and 122W, while scattered to locally numerous \nmoderate convection extends elsewhere from 05N to 12N between \n120W and 130W. Julio is moving toward the north-northeast near \n13 kt. This general motion with an increase in forward speed is \nexpected today. Slight strengthening is forecast today before \nJulio becomes absorbed by Tropical Storm Iselle tonight. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued\nby the National Hurricane Center at website -\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC\nForecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details on these two systems.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 102W, from 02N to 16N, moving westward \nat 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 02N to 13N between 91W and 104W.\nA tropical wave is along 110W, from 02N to 17N, moving westward \nat 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \nobserved from 05N to 18N between 103W and 112W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 06N96W to\n11N112W, then resumes SW of Julio from 14N122W to 10N130W and \nbeyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to the \ntropical waves, T.S. Julio and T.S. Iselle described above, \nscattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N\nE of 91W, and from 02N to 13N between 129W and 140W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout T.S. Iselle. \nTropical Storm Iselle is near 20.7N 119.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is\nmoving northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt\nwith gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb.\nThe proximity of Iselle continue to support light to gentle \nwinds across the Baja California Norte and SW Mexican offshore\nwaters where seas are moderate to 6 ft. Across the outer Baja \nCalifornia Sur offshore waters, fresh to strong SE winds and\nrough seas from 8 to 16 ft are present. In the Gulf of\nCalifornia, winds are gentle to moderate from the WNW and seas\nremain slight. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds \npersist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N \nwith 5 to 9 ft seas.\nFor the forecast, Iselle will move to 21.3N 121.4W this \nafternoon, 21.9N 123.2W Wed morning, 22.7N 124.9W Wed afternoon, \n23.4N 126.8W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical depression near \n23.9N 128.8W Thu afternoon, and become a remnant low and move to \n24.3N 130.7W Fri morning. Iselle will dissipate early Sat. Large\nsoutherly swell associated with Iselle will continue to move \nthrough the Baja offshore waters and reach the coasts through Wed\nnight. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to \npulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region mainly during \nthe overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming \nweekend, with seas occasionally building to 8-9 ft. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo\nregion and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. \nModerate southerly winds and moderate seas are between the\nEcuador and the Galapagos Islands, except W of Isabela and\nFernandina Islands where fresh SSE winds are ongoing. Moderate\nor weaker winds are found elsewhere, with slight to moderate \nseas in SW swell.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds will likely \npulse to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each night\nthrough Sat night building seas to 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh \nwinds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer \noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the end of \nthe week. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh \nS winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night and \nthen prevail through the remainder forecast period. Otherwise, \ncross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area waters Thu \nnight through Fri. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information about\nT.S. Iselle and T.S. Julio. \nHigh pressure of 1022 mb located near 31N145W extends a broad \nridge southeastward to approximately 125W, just West of Iselle. \nThe pressure gradient between these two features is supporting \nmoderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 11N to 22N and W of\n130W per scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are\nsouth of the monsoon W of 131W while E winds of similar speed are\nE of the tropical wave near 102W. South of the monsoon and E of\n115W SSW winds are moderate to fresh. Elsewhere, winds are moderate\nor weaker and seas moderate.\nFor the forecast, a tropical wave located near 102W, well to the\nSW of SW Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized \nshowers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear \nfavorable for development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression is expected to form by the end of the week while it \nmoves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore\nof Mexico. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone \nformation within the next two days and high chance of development \nthrough 7 days.\nLooking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore \nof Central America late this week or this weekend. Environmental \nconditions could support some gradual development of this system,\nand a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early \nnext week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to \n15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a low \nchance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two days \nand a medium chance of development through 7 days.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204485065535848451", "issued": "2026-08-25T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204485065535848451"}