{"id": "1204477888430178307", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-25T09:00:00Z", "msg": "373\nWTPZ45 KNHC 250851\nTCDEP5\n \nTropical Storm Julio Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102026\n200 AM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026\n \nConvection has increased markedly near the tropical cyclone over the \npast several hours. Moderate north-northeasterly wind shear, \nenhanced by the close proximity of Tropical Storm Iselle to the \nnortheast, is displacing the concentrated shower and thunderstorm \nactivity to the south and west. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated \nwinds of 35-40 kt wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of \nthe system. The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was \n3.0/45 kt, while objective estimates range from 28-39 kt. Based on a \nblend of the available intensity estimates and the ASCAT wind data, \nthe system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Julio, with an \ninitial intensity of 40 kt. \n\nJulio is moving toward the north-northeast over warm sea surface \ntemperatures and within a favorable upper-level wind environment, \nwhich should support modest strengthening over the next 12 h or so. \nHowever, given the small size of the storm, Julio is expected to \nbecome increasingly influenced by the outer circulation of Iselle \nlater tonight and ultimately be absorbed by Iselle by early \nWednesday. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/0900Z 15.7N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 18.4N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}