{"msg": "337\nAXNT20 KNHC 250521\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES... \nEastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and \nassociated area of low pressure is analyzed over the far eastern \nAtlantic a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands.\nTHe wave extends along 19W and S of 20N, with 1010 mb low \ncentered near 11N19W. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are \nnoted from 08N to 15N between 18W-22W. This system could become a \ntropical depression during the next few days while it moves \nwestward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern \nand central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could \nbecome less conducive for development by the weekend. This system \nhas a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 \ndays.\nPlease refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: \nhttps://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on\nthis feature.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of \n19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along\nthe wave axis and S of 15N.\nAn Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W south of 21N, \nmoving westward around 10 kt. No convection is noted with this\nwave at this time.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W south of 21N to \nnorthwest Venezuela, moving westward around 10 kt. No convection \nis noted with this wave at this time.\n \n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N48W. The \nITCZ extends from 11N48W to 06N51W to 08N59W. Aside from the \nconvection associated with the tropical waves described above, \nscattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either\nside of the boundaries. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1016 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near \n24N86W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic \nwinds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern \nBay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the \nbasin per buoy observations. \nFor the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the\ncentral Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge \nremaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain \ngentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend.\nA surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west\nof the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the \nperiod. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western\nAtlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America \ncontinues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the \ncentral Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW\nVenezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong\nwinds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE\nColombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. \nModerate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N \nto 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas \nelsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \noccurring from 09N to 15N W of 80W, including over portions of \nnorthern Costa Rica, and Nicaragua.\nFor the forecast, the current pattern across the region will \ncontinue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough \nseas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere,\nmoderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside \nfrom light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the \nbasin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following \npassages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across\nthe basin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for more details on\nlow pressure, Invest AL96, and tropical wave that emerged off \nAfrica.\nA weak surface trough is analyzed across the western Atlantic\nextending SW through 30N75W to 27N79W. Scattered showers are \nwithin 60 nm of this trough. Moderate SW winds are occurring north\nof the trough. A 1019 mb high pressure is east of this feature \nnear 29N70W. South of the high, fresh E-SE winds are noted from \nthe southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the \nWindward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north\nof 20N and west of 60W. Slight to moderate seas prevail north of \n20N and west of 61W. Invest AL95 is currently N of the area. Its \nassociated trough prevails over the waters N of 26N between 60W \nand 62W. Scattered moderate convection prevails E of the trough \nmainly N of 24N between 55W-59W. Another weak surface trough is\nanalyzed in the East Atlantic from 29N32W to 25N34W. No \nconvection related to this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure\nridging prevails. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of\nthe monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 \nft seas. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any \nremainder waters.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms\nin the wake of Invest AL95 prevail north of 24N between 54W and \n60W. Fresh to strong south winds are north of 28N between 55W and\n59W. These conditions will diminish through Tue as the low, \npossibly a tropical cyclone, moves farther away from the forecast \nwaters. Elsewhere, moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail\nS of about 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as \nthe northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far\nsouthern waters into the weekend.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1204436556323291139", "issued": "2026-08-25T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1204436556323291139"}