{"id": "1204404545079771139", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-25T03:00:00Z", "msg": "499\nWTPA42 PHFO 250238\nTCDCP2\n \nTropical Storm Lala Discussion Number  51\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Mon Aug 24 2026\n\nASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous advisory \nindicated that Lala has weakened slightly. The ASCAT-B pass showed \nmaximum winds between 40-45 kt, with slightly smaller 34 kt wind \nradii than previously estimated. Accounting for some likely \nundersampling, the initial intensity has been set to 50 kt for this \nadvisory. The ASCAT data also indicted Lala is centered slightly \nnortheast of previous estimates.\n\nThe official track forecast for Lala has been shifted slightly \nnorthward, mainly due to the initial position adjustment. Otherwise, \nthe reasoning behind the forecast is unchanged. Lala is expected to \nmove slowly northwestward for the next several days, between a weak \nridge to its northeast and a weak trough to its southwest. The NHC \nforecast track remains similar to the GDMI and HCCA forecasts \nthrough 72 h, and then weighs some of the global models a little \nmore heavily after that for the post-tropical part of the forecast.\n \nNo change of note was made to the NHC intensity or size forecast for \nLala. The tropical storm is moving over cool SSTs and through a \nmoderately dry environment (RH less than 50 percent based on GFS and \nECMWF SHIPS diagnostics). In about 2 days, an increase in south or \nsouthwesterly wind shear should contribute to Lala losing its deep \nconvection and becoming a remnant low about a day after that, near \nthe dateline. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS, ECMWF and \nvarious hurricane models also agrees with that timing.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/0300Z 34.3N 175.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 34.7N 176.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 35.1N 177.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 35.6N 178.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 36.2N 178.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 60H  27/1200Z 37.1N 179.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  28/0000Z 38.1N 180.0E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0000Z 40.0N 178.5E   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/0000Z 43.0N 176.5E   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}